TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116678
Played Sep 12Finished
Yaroslav Kravets
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511811––––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kravets above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 73.2%
52 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kravets 1–8 Nazar Kovalchuk Yaroslav Kravets has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-8 in 9
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kravets 1563 vs Kovalchuk 1654
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kravets 20% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kravets 20% vs Kovalchuk 70%
Kovalchuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kravets -2 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKravets 3.00 / Kovalchuk 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116678
Kravets3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Kovalchuk1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 164 of 285
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKravets1wins
AwayKovalchuk8wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKravets0%0 of 3
AwayKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kravets3Kovalchuk6n = 9Kovalchuk took 6 of 9
S2Kravets3Kovalchuk6n = 9Kovalchuk took 6 of 9
S3Kravets1Kovalchuk8n = 9Kovalchuk took 8 of 9
S4Kravets2Kovalchuk4n = 6Kovalchuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricKravetsKovalchukKravets − KovalchukBasisWins18−7in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match28.438.9−10.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKravetsKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 488 vs 374 / 72949.4%51.3%241 / 488 vs 374 / 729Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKravets 3.00/Kovalchuk 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 11 · 15:05Y. Kravets—135441N. Kovalchuk—111111113
WSep 4 · 16:35Y. Kravets—41111123N. Kovalchuk—1159101
LAug 29 · 08:35Y. Kravets—122921N. Kovalchuk—101111113
LAug 15 · 08:35Y. Kravets—49100N. Kovalchuk—1111123
LAug 14 · 17:05Y. Kravets—9750N. Kovalchuk—1111113
LAug 8 · 07:35Y. Kravets—11471182N. Kovalchuk—711114113
LJun 13 · 10:35Y. Kravets—104110N. Kovalchuk—1211133
LMay 16 · 06:05Y. Kravets—911391N. Kovalchuk—11911113
LMar 13 · 16:35Y. Kravets—711161N. Kovalchuk—11611113
Y. Kravets10
WSep 12 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.7387111492Y. Kravets2.001111512113LSep 12 · 08:35Y. Kravets2.3812311892R. Haiseniuk1.531011311113LSep 12 · 07:05Y. Kravets2.251112881I. Romaniak1.5761411113WSep 12 · 05:05Y. Kravets1.91101111123R. Lazebnyi1.801272101LSep 11 · 19:05Y. Kravets1.807890M. Smyrnov1.911111113LSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172LSep 11 · 13:05R. Haiseniuk1.53125613113Y. Kravets2.381011111122LSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.00141179113N. Kovalchuk1.73128111182WSep 12 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk1.731111113R. Haiseniuk2.005830WSep 12 · 05:35I. Romaniak1.8012690N. Kovalchuk1.911411113LSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.839660WSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162LSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Kravets
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N. Kovalchuk
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