TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116918
Played Sep 12Finished
Volodymyr Plishylo
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412118711911118
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Plishylo above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 54.5%
102 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Plishylo 12–10 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Plishylo
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plishylo 1565 vs Kovalchuk 1654
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plishylo 40% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plishylo 40% vs Kovalchuk 70%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plishylo -1 · Kovalchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlishylo 2.00 / Kovalchuk 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13116918
Plishylo2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 88 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back24% 30 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Kovalchuk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 164 of 285
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlishylo6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPlishylo leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlishylo50%2 of 4
AwayKovalchuk33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plishylo4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Plishylo7Kovalchuk3n = 10Plishylo took 7 of 10
S3Plishylo5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Plishylo6Kovalchuk3n = 9Plishylo took 6 of 9
S5Plishylo2Kovalchuk3n = 5Kovalchuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlishyloKovalchukP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.541.0+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlishyloKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 650 vs 374 / 72943.9%51.3%285 / 650 vs 374 / 729Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukPlishylo 2.00/Kovalchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plishylo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo—141179113N. Kovalchuk—128111182
WAug 29 · 04:35V. Plishylo—61111123N. Kovalchuk—1167101
WAug 28 · 13:35V. Plishylo—61112113N. Kovalchuk—1151091
LAug 15 · 04:35V. Plishylo—10630N. Kovalchuk—1211113
LAug 14 · 18:05V. Plishylo—15811872N. Kovalchuk—1311711113
WAug 8 · 09:35V. Plishylo—91111113N. Kovalchuk—115961
WJul 2 · 21:00V. Plishylo—21113113N. Kovalchuk—1141181
LJun 13 · 08:35V. Plishylo—41191152N. Kovalchuk—117117113
WJun 4 · 22:00V. Plishylo—119911123N. Kovalchuk—911118102
LMay 16 · 05:05V. Plishylo—11117782N. Kovalchuk—371111113
V. Plishylo10
LSep 12 · 06:05V. Plishylo2.20481191R. Lazebnyi1.6111116113WSep 12 · 04:35V. Plishylo1.8391411113R. Haiseniuk1.831112981LAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123LAug 29 · 09:05V. Plishylo1.83761181O. Napirko1.8311116113WAug 29 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.501211911113R. Lazebnyi1.50104111362WAug 29 · 06:05V. Plishylo1.911111113R. Haiseniuk1.805780WAug 29 · 04:35V. Plishylo2.0061111123N. Kovalchuk1.731167101LAug 28 · 18:05V. Plishylo1.91811111082R. Haiseniuk1.80114912113LAug 28 · 16:35V. Plishylo1.8311114572O. Napirko1.83661111113LAug 28 · 15:05V. Plishylo2.75111110582D. Shcherbak1.40791211113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 12 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk1.731111113R. Haiseniuk2.005830WSep 12 · 05:35I. Romaniak1.8012690N. Kovalchuk1.911411113LSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.839660WSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162LSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113LAug 29 · 04:35V. Plishylo2.0061111123N. Kovalchuk1.731167101
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