TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037649
Played Aug 29Finished
Volodymyr Plishylo
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12101149111113116
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVolodymyr Plishylo above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 98 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 62.5%
98 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Plishylo 2–3 Ruslan Lazebnyi Volodymyr Plishylo has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:07What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plishylo 1550 vs Lazebnyi 1520
Plishylo
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plishylo 40% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Plishylo
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plishylo 40% vs Lazebnyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plishylo +2 · Lazebnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Lazebnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlishylo 2.50 / Lazebnyi 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037649
Plishylo2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 101 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back25% 35 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Lazebnyi1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePlishylo2wins
AwayLazebnyi3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlishylon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLazebnyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plishylo2Lazebnyi3n = 5Lazebnyi took 3 of 5
S2Plishylo3Lazebnyi2n = 5Plishylo took 3 of 5
S3Plishylo1Lazebnyi4n = 5Lazebnyi took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricPlishyloLazebnyiP − LBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match29.834.8−5.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlishyloLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime291 / 661 vs 41 / 8144%50.6%291 / 661 vs 41 / 81Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiPlishylo 2.50/Lazebnyi 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plishylo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 29 · 07:35V. Plishylo—1211911113R. Lazebnyi—104111362
LAug 28 · 12:05V. Plishylo—7540R. Lazebnyi—1111113
LAug 15 · 09:05V. Plishylo—3450R. Lazebnyi—1111113
WAug 14 · 12:05V. Plishylo—1113113R. Lazebnyi—21170
LAug 8 · 05:05V. Plishylo—4111341R. Lazebnyi—11715113
V. Plishylo10
LAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123LAug 29 · 09:05V. Plishylo1.83761181O. Napirko1.8311116113WAug 29 · 06:05V. Plishylo1.911111113R. Haiseniuk1.805780WAug 29 · 04:35V. Plishylo2.0061111123N. Kovalchuk1.731167101LAug 28 · 18:05V. Plishylo1.91811111082R. Haiseniuk1.80114912113LAug 28 · 16:35V. Plishylo1.8311114572O. Napirko1.83661111113LAug 28 · 15:05V. Plishylo2.75111110582D. Shcherbak1.40791211113WAug 28 · 13:35V. Plishylo1.9161112113N. Kovalchuk1.801151091LAug 28 · 12:05V. Plishylo2.107540R. Lazebnyi1.671111113WAug 28 · 02:30V. Plishylo2.00412611113R. Haiseniuk1.73111011372
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113WAug 28 · 12:05V. Plishylo2.107540R. Lazebnyi1.671111113
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