TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031402
Played Aug 28Finished
Volodymyr Plishylo
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111151210119––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVolodymyr Plishylo above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 54.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Plishylo 9–10 Nazar Kovalchuk Volodymyr Plishylo has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plishylo 1573 vs Kovalchuk 1646
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plishylo 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plishylo 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plishylo -1 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plishylo form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlishylo 1.91 / Kovalchuk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13031402
Plishylo1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 97 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back24% 33 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Kovalchuk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 170 of 285
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it73% 114 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlishylo5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlishylo60%3 of 5
AwayKovalchuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plishylo5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Plishylo6Kovalchuk4n = 10Plishylo took 6 of 10
S3Plishylo5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Plishylo5Kovalchuk3n = 8Plishylo took 5 of 8
S5Plishylo1Kovalchuk3n = 4Kovalchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlishyloKovalchukP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.7−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlishyloKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 663 vs 348 / 68344.3%51%294 / 663 vs 348 / 683Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukPlishylo 1.91/Kovalchuk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Plishylo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 04:35V. Plishylo—10630N. Kovalchuk—1211113
LAug 14 · 18:05V. Plishylo—15811872N. Kovalchuk—1311711113
WAug 8 · 09:35V. Plishylo—91111113N. Kovalchuk—115961
WJul 2 · 21:00V. Plishylo—21113113N. Kovalchuk—1141181
LJun 13 · 08:35V. Plishylo—41191152N. Kovalchuk—117117113
WJun 4 · 22:00V. Plishylo—119911123N. Kovalchuk—911118102
LMay 16 · 05:05V. Plishylo—11117782N. Kovalchuk—371111113
WMay 15 · 24:00V. Plishylo—11116113N. Kovalchuk—991151
WApr 24 · 01:30V. Plishylo—1112113N. Kovalchuk—91080
LMar 19 · 22:00V. Plishylo—6211121N. Kovalchuk—11119143
V. Plishylo10
LAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123LAug 29 · 09:05V. Plishylo1.83761181O. Napirko1.8311116113WAug 29 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.501211911113R. Lazebnyi1.50104111362WAug 29 · 06:05V. Plishylo1.911111113R. Haiseniuk1.805780WAug 29 · 04:35V. Plishylo2.0061111123N. Kovalchuk1.731167101LAug 28 · 18:05V. Plishylo1.91811111082R. Haiseniuk1.80114912113LAug 28 · 16:35V. Plishylo1.8311114572O. Napirko1.83661111113LAug 28 · 15:05V. Plishylo2.75111110582D. Shcherbak1.40791211113LAug 28 · 12:05V. Plishylo2.107540R. Lazebnyi1.671111113WAug 28 · 02:30V. Plishylo2.00412611113R. Haiseniuk1.73111011372
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LAug 29 · 04:35V. Plishylo2.0061111123N. Kovalchuk1.731167101
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