TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031251
Played Aug 28Finished
Volodymyr Plishylo
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511411––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Plishylo above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 6-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 37 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 55.8%
37 points drawn · the score is 12 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Volodymyr Plishylo 1–2 Ruslan Lazebnyi Volodymyr Plishylo has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:23What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lazebnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plishylo 1586 vs Lazebnyi 1605
Lazebnyi
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plishylo 60% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Plishylo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plishylo 40% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plishylo +1 · Lazebnyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Lazebnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlishylo 2.10 / Lazebnyi 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13031251
Plishylo2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 97 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back24% 33 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Lazebnyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 28 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePlishylo1wins
AwayLazebnyi2wins
Lazebnyi leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plishylo1Lazebnyi2n = 3Lazebnyi took 2 of 3
S2Plishylo2Lazebnyi1n = 3Plishylo took 2 of 3
S3Plishylo1Lazebnyi2n = 3Lazebnyi took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricPlishyloLazebnyiP − LBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match26.332.3−6.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlishyloLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 662 vs 39 / 7144.4%54.9%294 / 662 vs 39 / 71Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiPlishylo 2.10/Lazebnyi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 15 · 09:05V. Plishylo—3450R. Lazebnyi—1111113
WAug 14 · 12:05V. Plishylo—1113113R. Lazebnyi—21170
LAug 8 · 05:05V. Plishylo—4111341R. Lazebnyi—11715113
V. Plishylo10
LAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123LAug 29 · 09:05V. Plishylo1.83761181O. Napirko1.8311116113WAug 29 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.501211911113R. Lazebnyi1.50104111362WAug 29 · 06:05V. Plishylo1.911111113R. Haiseniuk1.805780WAug 29 · 04:35V. Plishylo2.0061111123N. Kovalchuk1.731167101LAug 28 · 18:05V. Plishylo1.91811111082R. Haiseniuk1.80114912113LAug 28 · 16:35V. Plishylo1.8311114572O. Napirko1.83661111113LAug 28 · 15:05V. Plishylo2.75111110582D. Shcherbak1.40791211113WAug 28 · 13:35V. Plishylo1.9161112113N. Kovalchuk1.801151091WAug 28 · 02:30V. Plishylo2.00412611113R. Haiseniuk1.73111011372
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113LAug 29 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.501211911113R. Lazebnyi1.50104111362
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