TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111005
Played Sep 11Finished
Yaroslav Kravets
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811911––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kravets above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 54.5%
57 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kravets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kravets 1585 vs Smyrnov 1568
Kravets
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kravets 20% vs Smyrnov 40%
Smyrnov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kravets 50% vs Smyrnov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kravets -2 · Smyrnov -3
Smyrnov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kravets) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKravets 1.80 / Smyrnov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kravets)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111005
Kravets1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite34% won 13 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it55% 12 of 22
Smyrnov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 113 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKravetsSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 484 vs 400 / 81449.6%49.1%240 / 484 vs 400 / 814Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KravetsKravets 1.80/Smyrnov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kravets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smyrnov won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
Y. Kravets10
LSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172LSep 11 · 13:05R. Haiseniuk1.53125613113Y. Kravets2.381011111122LSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113LSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581WSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113LSep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.7381111113M. Smyrnov2.00119991LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972WSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152
Upcoming Matches
Y. Kravets
M. Smyrnov
Nothing scheduled
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