TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13118428
Played Sep 12Finished
Yaroslav Kravets
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121171121210––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Kravets above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kravets 4–3 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 12h before this match
Lazebnyi beat Kravets 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kravets 1570 vs Lazebnyi 1599
Lazebnyi
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kravets 20% vs Lazebnyi 60%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kravets 40% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kravets -3 · Lazebnyi +2
Kravets
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lazebnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kravets form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKravets 1.91 / Lazebnyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13118428
Kravets1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Lazebnyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 36 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it68% 26 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKravets4wins
AwayLazebnyi3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKravets leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKravets100%3 of 3
AwayLazebnyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kravets3Lazebnyi4n = 7Lazebnyi took 4 of 7
S2Kravets3Lazebnyi4n = 7Lazebnyi took 4 of 7
S3Kravets4Lazebnyi3n = 7Kravets took 4 of 7
S4Kravets2Lazebnyi4n = 6Lazebnyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKravetsLazebnyiK − LBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match37.037.3−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKravetsLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 485 vs 57 / 11449.5%50%240 / 485 vs 57 / 114Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiKravets 1.91/Lazebnyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kravets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 11 · 17:05Y. Kravets—11411101R. Lazebnyi—13115123
WSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets—111188123R. Lazebnyi—761111102
WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets—1191183R. Lazebnyi—711661
WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Kravets—6111211113R. Lazebnyi—116101372
LAug 15 · 07:05Y. Kravets—1011061R. Lazebnyi—12311113
WAug 14 · 14:05Y. Kravets—111011113R. Lazebnyi—612731
LAug 8 · 06:05Y. Kravets—2920R. Lazebnyi—1111113
Y. Kravets10
LSep 11 · 19:05Y. Kravets1.807890M. Smyrnov1.911111113LSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172LSep 11 · 13:05R. Haiseniuk1.53125613113Y. Kravets2.381011111122LSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113LSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581WSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113WSep 11 · 14:35R. Lazebnyi2.001111113R. Haiseniuk1.739670LSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133LSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080WSep 7 · 17:25R. Lazebnyi2.7511117113D. Shcherbak1.40671161LSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661
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