TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106208
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117113––––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 49 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Serhii Rak at 60.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 82–59 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 59 of their 141 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
82-59 in 141
Rak
Correct
gap of 23 in 141, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1799 vs Kozachuk 1742
Rak
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 80% vs Kozachuk 60%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Kozachuk 40%
Rak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -1 · Kozachuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.57 / Kozachuk 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Rak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13106208
Rak1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 271 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it92% 134 of 145
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 234
Kozachuk2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 100 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak7wins
AwayKozachuk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak66.7%4 of 6
AwayKozachuk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Rak7Kozachuk2n = 9Rak took 7 of 9
S5Rak1Kozachuk2n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakKozachukR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.435.6+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 914 vs 546 / 109955%49.7%503 / 914 vs 546 / 1099Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.57/Kozachuk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak—91111113I. Kozachuk—117361
WSep 1 · 05:55S. Rak—11117113I. Kozachuk—881151
LAug 31 · 16:55S. Rak—811981I. Kozachuk—11411113
WAug 25 · 09:25S. Rak—1111113I. Kozachuk—7670
WAug 24 · 16:55S. Rak—12911113I. Kozachuk—1011481
LAug 18 · 09:35S. Rak—11931162I. Kozachuk—411117113
WAug 17 · 17:05S. Rak—61111113I. Kozachuk—117841
WAug 17 · 02:00S. Rak—11113133I. Kozachuk—8611111
WAug 14 · 02:00S. Rak—7101111113I. Kozachuk—11129792
LAug 11 · 09:35S. Rak—112115142I. Kozachuk—511611163
S. Rak10
LSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492WSep 10 · 20:00S. Rak1.3051112113R. Haiseniuk3.401161071WSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060WSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870LSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113WSep 11 · 24:00I. Kozachuk1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.009790WSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380WSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182
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