TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121792
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111141210118––
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 101–74 Valerii Vlasenko Valerii Vlasenko has won 74 of their 175 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
101-74 in 175
Napirko
Correct
gap of 27 in 175, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1604 vs Vlasenko 1526
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 80% vs Vlasenko 60%
Napirko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 70% vs Vlasenko 50%
Napirko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +2 · Vlasenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.80 / Vlasenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Napirko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13121792
Napirko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 66 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it74% 57 of 77
Vlasenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 121 of 300
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko4wins
AwayVlasenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko80%4 of 5
AwayVlasenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko5Vlasenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Napirko6Vlasenko4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S3Napirko2Vlasenko8n = 10Vlasenko took 8 of 10
S4Napirko3Vlasenko5n = 8Vlasenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoVlasenkoN − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.438.3+0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 858 vs 409 / 93450.2%43.8%431 / 858 vs 409 / 934Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.80/Vlasenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 22:45O. Napirko4011117113V. Vlasenko30851161
LSep 6 · 05:35O. Napirko351061181V. Vlasenko4312119113
LAug 27 · 02:15O. Napirko52111461382V. Vlasenko556121115113
LAug 25 · 02:15O. Napirko4210121191V. Vlasenko46121013113
LAug 18 · 02:15O. Napirko35811791V. Vlasenko4111811113
WAug 14 · 02:15O. Napirko50118119113V. Vlasenko3651141152
LAug 9 · 05:35O. Napirko28710110V. Vlasenko361112133
WAug 4 · 02:15O. Napirko3911116113V. Vlasenko36971191
WAug 2 · 05:35O. Napirko4111118113V. Vlasenko27541171
LJul 31 · 02:15O. Napirko224990V. Vlasenko331111113
O. Napirko10
WSep 13 · 08:35O. Napirko1.30911119113O. Mitla3.4011791122WSep 13 · 07:05O. Napirko1.809101112113A. Shypilov1.91111261092LSep 13 · 05:05O. Napirko1.73711341S. Kalenyk2.0011511113WSep 12 · 19:05O. Napirko1.911111113S. Kalenyk1.809870WSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 15:05V. Boyko2.101111811113O. Napirko1.6751311892WSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 13 · 07:35V. Boyko1.671110791V. Vlasenko2.1071211113WSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161LSep 13 · 05:35A. Shypilov1.91811117113V. Vlasenko1.8011671182WSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152LSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113WSep 11 · 23:00V. Vlasenko1.801111133S. Kalenyk1.9189110LSep 11 · 21:30V. Vlasenko2.0071080O. Hura1.731112113LSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83101111123V. Vlasenko1.831249101WSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102
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