TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117782
Played Sep 12Finished
Vitalii Boyko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151113811118119
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:14 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 56.2%
98 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 61–83 Oleh Napirko Vitalii Boyko has won 61 of their 144 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Napirko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-83 in 144
Napirko
Wrong
gap of 22 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1532 vs Napirko 1566
Napirko
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 60% vs Napirko 80%
Napirko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 70% vs Napirko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko +2 · Napirko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 2.10 / Napirko 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Napirko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13117782
Boyko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 31 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Napirko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 72 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 60 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko5wins
AwayNapirko5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoykon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNapirko55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko1Napirko9n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S2Boyko6Napirko4n = 10Boyko took 6 of 10
S3Boyko5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S4Boyko6Napirko3n = 9Boyko took 6 of 9
S5Boyko4Napirko3n = 7Boyko took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoNapirkoB − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match41.943.4−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 476 vs 430 / 85746%50.2%219 / 476 vs 430 / 857Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoBoyko 2.10/Napirko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Boyko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 07:35V. Boyko4151191152O. Napirko46119114113
WJun 27 · 13:05V. Boyko49771111133O. Napirko41111135112
WJun 21 · 07:35V. Boyko50811119113O. Napirko4411761192
LJun 20 · 16:35V. Boyko51811151162O. Napirko55118178113
WJun 6 · 16:35V. Boyko3811511113O. Napirko36711991
LJun 6 · 24:30V. Boyko228860O. Napirko331111113
WMay 31 · 07:05V. Boyko53713119133O. Napirko491111511112
WMay 30 · 18:05V. Boyko47713511113O. Napirko43111111552
LMay 30 · 24:30V. Boyko26541161O. Napirko4211119113
LMay 8 · 22:30V. Boyko42411101162O. Napirko45117124113
V. Boyko10
WSep 12 · 13:35V. Boyko1.9198111343S. Kalenyk1.80111151122WSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko1.671071111113M. Smyrnov2.1012117642LSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113WSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113LSep 11 · 23:30V. Boyko2.2061250O. Hura1.611114113WSep 11 · 22:30A. Shypilov1.61111156112V. Boyko2.20771111133LSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WAug 23 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.36101111532V. Boyko3.00125811113WAug 23 · 09:35V. Boyko1.53111168113O. Mitla2.3856111152WAug 23 · 08:35V. Boyko1.73111187123M. Smyrnov2.00581111102
O. Napirko10
WSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941
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