TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116978
Played Sep 12Finished
Vitalii Boyko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911811115131142
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 4-2
Point 85 set 5, 4-2 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 9–13 Serhii Kalenyk Vitalii Boyko has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kalenyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Kalenyk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1522 vs Kalenyk 1511
Boyko
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 60% vs Kalenyk 40%
Boyko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 60% vs Kalenyk 40%
Boyko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko +1 · Kalenyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 1.91 / Kalenyk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalenyk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116978
Boyko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 31 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Kalenyk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 113 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it71% 85 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoyko100%3 of 3
AwayKalenyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko3Kalenyk7n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S2Boyko7Kalenyk3n = 10Boyko took 7 of 10
S3Boyko5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Boyko2Kalenyk4n = 6Kalenyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoKalenykB − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.634.9−2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 475 vs 347 / 73645.9%47.2%218 / 475 vs 347 / 736Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykBoyko 1.91/Kalenyk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Boyko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko27621181S. Kalenyk3911116113
WAug 16 · 06:05V. Boyko371214113S. Kalenyk31101290
WAug 15 · 16:35V. Boyko43101111113S. Kalenyk31125771
LJun 28 · 04:35V. Boyko335111071S. Kalenyk4211812113
WJun 6 · 18:05V. Boyko331111113S. Kalenyk154560
LMay 9 · 12:05V. Boyko143470S. Kalenyk331111113
WMay 9 · 02:30V. Boyko46111164143S. Kalenyk51891111122
WMay 1 · 23:30V. Boyko3851111113S. Kalenyk32114891
LMar 28 · 13:05V. Boyko34711881S. Kalenyk4211911113
LMar 22 · 07:05V. Boyko216870S. Kalenyk331111113
V. Boyko10
WSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko1.671071111113M. Smyrnov2.1012117642LSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113WSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113LSep 11 · 23:30V. Boyko2.2061250O. Hura1.611114113WSep 11 · 22:30A. Shypilov1.61111156112V. Boyko2.20771111133LSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WAug 23 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.36101111532V. Boyko3.00125811113WAug 23 · 09:35V. Boyko1.53111168113O. Mitla2.3856111152WAug 23 · 08:35V. Boyko1.73111187123M. Smyrnov2.00581111102LAug 23 · 07:05V. Boyko2.201144121O. Hura1.6191111143
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583LSep 12 · 03:00S. Kalenyk1.67117691O. Hura2.1041111113LSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551LSep 11 · 23:00V. Vlasenko1.801111133S. Kalenyk1.9189110WSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102LSep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00116118113S. Kalenyk1.7381171182LSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113
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