TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117304
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611131538––––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 3-8
Point 56 set 3, 3-8 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 59.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 29–47 Serhii Kalenyk Oleksii Mitla has won 29 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:52What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kalenyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-47 in 76
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 18 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1486 vs Kalenyk 1498
Kalenyk
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 60% vs Kalenyk 40%
Mitla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 60% vs Kalenyk 30%
Mitla
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla +1 · Kalenyk -3
Kalenyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kalenyk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 2.20 / Kalenyk 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Kalenyk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13117304
Mitla2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 165 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 233
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 133
Kalenyk1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 113 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it71% 85 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla6wins
AwayKalenyk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla100%3 of 3
AwayKalenyk57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla3Kalenyk7n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S2Mitla4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S3Mitla4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S4Mitla5Kalenyk1n = 6Mitla took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaKalenykM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.836.6−3.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 770 vs 346 / 73543.6%47.1%336 / 770 vs 346 / 735Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykMitla 2.20/Kalenyk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 22:15O. Mitla132740S. Kalenyk331111113
WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla3741111113S. Kalenyk34117791
WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla44111192113S. Kalenyk4587111182
LSep 2 · 22:15O. Mitla196580S. Kalenyk331111113
WSep 1 · 20:15O. Mitla4181111113S. Kalenyk36118981
WAug 20 · 24:15O. Mitla511171111113S. Kalenyk4313117392
WAug 13 · 22:15O. Mitla4011711113S. Kalenyk36911791
LAug 13 · 24:45O. Mitla151590S. Kalenyk331111113
WAug 12 · 24:45O. Mitla45111110133S. Kalenyk408912111
LAug 7 · 23:30O. Mitla239860S. Kalenyk331111113
O. Mitla10
WSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura1.6711611113O. Mitla2.10411781WSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113WSep 9 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.9191410101O. Mitla1.80111212123
S. Kalenyk10
LSep 12 · 13:35V. Boyko1.9198111343S. Kalenyk1.80111151122LSep 12 · 03:00S. Kalenyk1.67117691O. Hura2.1041111113LSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551LSep 11 · 23:00V. Vlasenko1.801111133S. Kalenyk1.9189110WSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102LSep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00116118113S. Kalenyk1.7381171182LSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113
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