TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111411
Played Sep 12Finished
Orest Hura
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114611117118––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Orest Hura at 57.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 30–23 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 23 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-23 in 53
Hura
Correct
gap of 7 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1592 vs Mitla 1478
Hura
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 40% vs Mitla 60%
Mitla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 40% vs Mitla 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura +2 · Mitla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hura)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 1.67 / Mitla 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Hura)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111411
Hura1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 93 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it98% 45 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Mitla2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 165 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura6wins
AwayMitla4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura75%3 of 4
AwayMitla50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura4Mitla6n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S2Hura7Mitla3n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S3Hura8Mitla2n = 10Hura took 8 of 10
S4Hura6Mitla3n = 9Hura took 6 of 9
S5Hura1Mitla4n = 5Mitla took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraMitlaH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.241.9+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 791 vs 335 / 76853.1%43.6%420 / 791 vs 335 / 768Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HuraHura 1.67/Mitla 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura—99111192O. Mitla—111195113
WSep 4 · 20:30O. Hura—101211123O. Mitla—12106101
WSep 2 · 23:15O. Hura—1111113O. Mitla—7580
WSep 2 · 02:15O. Hura—15144113O. Mitla—13121171
LAug 30 · 11:05O. Hura—61111752O. Mitla—118611113
WAug 29 · 13:05O. Hura—81111183O. Mitla—1166161
WAug 29 · 01:00O. Hura—81111113O. Mitla—117491
WAug 23 · 05:35O. Hura—117712193O. Mitla—8111110172
LAug 13 · 02:45O. Hura—61111542O. Mitla—119411113
LAug 12 · 02:45O. Hura—111011432O. Mitla—912811113
O. Hura10
WSep 12 · 03:00S. Kalenyk1.67117691O. Hura2.1041111113WSep 11 · 23:30V. Boyko2.2061250O. Hura1.611114113WSep 11 · 21:30V. Vlasenko2.0071080O. Hura1.731112113LSep 11 · 20:30A. Shypilov2.1012119113O. Hura1.671071191LSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191WSep 9 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.20711851O. Hura1.6111811113WSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.101161171O. Hura1.6713119113LSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060
O. Mitla10
WSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113WSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113WSep 9 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.9191410101O. Mitla1.80111212123LSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940
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