TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111778
Played Sep 11Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012811––––
Orest Hura
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:32 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Orest Hura at 54.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 61–94 Orest Hura Valerii Vlasenko has won 61 of their 155 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-94 in 155
Hura
Correct
gap of 33 in 155, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1512 vs Hura 1568
Hura
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 60% vs Hura 20%
Vlasenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 40% vs Hura 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -2 · Hura -4
Hura
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Hura)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.00 / Hura 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Hura)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111778
Vlasenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 130 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 86
Hura1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 93 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it98% 45 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko4wins
AwayHura6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko50%3 of 6
AwayHura75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko6Hura4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Vlasenko3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S3Vlasenko5Hura5n = 10split evenly
S4Vlasenko5Hura5n = 10split evenly
S5Vlasenko1Hura2n = 3Hura took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoHuraV − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.843.1−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 932 vs 418 / 78943.7%53%407 / 932 vs 418 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HuraVlasenko 2.00/Hura 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—1161171O. Hura—13119113
LSep 5 · 16:05V. Vlasenko—911121152O. Hura—117149113
WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko—11815123O. Hura—71113101
LSep 3 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—991181O. Hura—11119113
LAug 30 · 07:05V. Vlasenko—16951142O. Hura—1411118113
LAug 29 · 02:00V. Vlasenko—119581O. Hura—81111113
WAug 26 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—11119113O. Hura—791181
WAug 22 · 02:00V. Vlasenko—811117113O. Hura—11791182
WAug 16 · 05:35V. Vlasenko—11711123O. Hura—9117101
LAug 15 · 17:05V. Vlasenko—1184101O. Hura—41111123
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83101111123V. Vlasenko1.831249101WSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102WSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972LSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.101161171O. Hura1.6713119113WSep 9 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.917911151V. Vlasenko1.8011112173LSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.9184100O. Mitla1.801111123LSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113
O. Hura10
LSep 11 · 20:30A. Shypilov2.1012119113O. Hura1.671071191LSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191WSep 9 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.20711851O. Hura1.6111811113WSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.101161171O. Hura1.6713119113LSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060LSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113LSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113
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