TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101001
Played Sep 10Finished
Serhii Kalenyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012911117117116
Orest Hura
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kalenyk above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 95 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kalenyk 30–17 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 17 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:36What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kalenyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-17 in 47
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 13 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalenyk 1499 vs Hura 1598
Hura
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalenyk 20% vs Hura 40%
Hura
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalenyk 50% vs Hura 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalenyk -4 · Hura -2
Kalenyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalenyk 1.67 / Hura 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kalenyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13101001
Kalenyk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 114 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it72% 87 of 121
Hura2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 41 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back29% 16 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back21% 6 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalenyk6wins
AwayHura4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKalenyk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalenyk66.7%4 of 6
AwayHura50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalenyk6Hura4n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S2Kalenyk3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S3Kalenyk5Hura5n = 10split evenly
S4Kalenyk6Hura3n = 9Kalenyk took 6 of 9
S5Kalenyk2Hura1n = 3Kalenyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenykHuraK − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.838.1+3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenykHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 729 vs 418 / 78747.1%53.1%343 / 729 vs 418 / 787Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykKalenyk 1.67/Hura 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 17:05S. Kalenyk—11813113O. Hura—7111171
WSep 5 · 01:30S. Kalenyk—11911113O. Hura—611171
LSep 2 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—4880O. Hura—1111113
LSep 2 · 24:15S. Kalenyk—1187101O. Hura—91111123
WAug 19 · 02:45S. Kalenyk—111111113O. Hura—761351
WAug 16 · 11:35S. Kalenyk—101111113O. Hura—125561
WAug 15 · 15:05S. Kalenyk—11141011113O. Hura—21612562
WAug 12 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—913128113O. Hura—1111101172
LAug 11 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—118951O. Hura—91111113
LAug 7 · 20:30S. Kalenyk—391111132O. Hura—111187153
S. Kalenyk10
LSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102LSep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00116118113S. Kalenyk1.7381171182LSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113LSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491WSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10961111113S. Kalenyk1.6711119362WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113
O. Hura10
LSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191WSep 9 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.20711851O. Hura1.6111811113WSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.101161171O. Hura1.6713119113LSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060LSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113LSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113LSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161WSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113
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