TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111239
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Kalenyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11513111214116––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kalenyk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 83 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 59.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kalenyk 47–29 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 29 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kalenyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-29 in 76
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 18 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalenyk 1536 vs Mitla 1467
Kalenyk
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalenyk 40% vs Mitla 60%
Mitla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalenyk 50% vs Mitla 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalenyk +2 · Mitla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kalenyk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalenyk 1.57 / Mitla 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kalenyk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111239
Kalenyk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 114 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 61 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it71% 86 of 121
Mitla2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 165 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalenyk4wins
AwayMitla6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalenyk57.1%4 of 7
AwayMitla100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalenyk7Mitla3n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S2Kalenyk6Mitla4n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S3Kalenyk6Mitla4n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S4Kalenyk1Mitla5n = 6Mitla took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenykMitlaK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.632.8+3.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenykMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 732 vs 334 / 76747.3%43.6%346 / 732 vs 334 / 767Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykKalenyk 1.57/Mitla 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk—1111113O. Mitla—2740
LSep 6 · 10:05S. Kalenyk—117791O. Mitla—41111113
LSep 5 · 24:00S. Kalenyk—87111182O. Mitla—111192113
WSep 2 · 22:15S. Kalenyk—1111113O. Mitla—6580
LSep 1 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—118981O. Mitla—81111113
LAug 20 · 24:15S. Kalenyk—13117392O. Mitla—1171111113
LAug 13 · 22:15S. Kalenyk—911791O. Mitla—11711113
WAug 13 · 24:45S. Kalenyk—1111113O. Mitla—1590
LAug 12 · 24:45S. Kalenyk—8912111O. Mitla—111110133
WAug 7 · 23:30S. Kalenyk—1111113O. Mitla—9860
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102LSep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00116118113S. Kalenyk1.7381171182LSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113LSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491WSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10961111113S. Kalenyk1.6711119362WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740
O. Mitla10
WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113WSep 9 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.9191410101O. Mitla1.80111212123LSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940LSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881WSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.9184100O. Mitla1.801111123LSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740
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