TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111591
Played Sep 11Finished
Vitalii Boyko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611211116811––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 66 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 9–12 Serhii Kalenyk Vitalii Boyko has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Boyko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1528 vs Kalenyk 1513
Boyko
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 80% vs Kalenyk 20%
Boyko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 70% vs Kalenyk 50%
Boyko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko +3 · Kalenyk +1
Boyko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 1.80 / Kalenyk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalenyk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111591
Boyko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 43 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Kalenyk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 78 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoyko100%3 of 3
AwayKalenyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko3Kalenyk7n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S2Boyko8Kalenyk2n = 10Boyko took 8 of 10
S3Boyko4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S4Boyko2Kalenyk4n = 6Kalenyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoKalenykB − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.835.2−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 483 vs 344 / 73046.2%47.1%223 / 483 vs 344 / 730Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykBoyko 1.80/Kalenyk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 06:05V. Boyko—1214113S. Kalenyk—101290
WAug 15 · 16:35V. Boyko—101111113S. Kalenyk—125771
LJun 28 · 04:35V. Boyko—5111071S. Kalenyk—11812113
WJun 6 · 18:05V. Boyko—1111113S. Kalenyk—4560
LMay 9 · 12:05V. Boyko—3470S. Kalenyk—1111113
WMay 9 · 02:30V. Boyko—111164143S. Kalenyk—891111122
WMay 1 · 23:30V. Boyko—51111113S. Kalenyk—114891
LMar 28 · 13:05V. Boyko—711881S. Kalenyk—11911113
LMar 22 · 07:05V. Boyko—6870S. Kalenyk—1111113
LMar 21 · 03:30V. Boyko—711921S. Kalenyk—11911113
V. Boyko10
WAug 23 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.36101111532V. Boyko3.00125811113WAug 23 · 09:35V. Boyko1.53111168113O. Mitla2.3856111152WAug 23 · 08:35V. Boyko1.73111187123M. Smyrnov2.00581111102LAug 23 · 07:05V. Boyko2.201144121O. Hura1.6191111143WAug 23 · 05:05V. Boyko1.611111123Y. Shmyndra2.2078100WAug 22 · 18:05V. Boyko1.57111111113O. Mitla2.25913681LAug 22 · 16:35V. Boyko2.20211891O. Napirko1.6111711113WAug 22 · 15:05V. Boyko3.501111113A. Kotyk1.282730WAug 22 · 13:35V. Boyko1.571031112123Y. Shmyndra2.251211910112LAug 22 · 12:05V. Boyko2.1011770A. Shypilov1.671311113
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102LSep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00116118113S. Kalenyk1.7381171182LSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113LSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491WSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10961111113S. Kalenyk1.6711119362WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113
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