TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472036
Played Aug 22Finished
Vitalii Boyko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211117811911––
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 65.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 61–83 Oleh Napirko Vitalii Boyko has won 61 of their 144 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-83 in 144
Napirko
Correct
gap of 22 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1473 vs Napirko 1586
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 60% vs Napirko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 30% vs Napirko 70%
Napirko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko +2 · Napirko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boyko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 2.20 / Napirko 1.61
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Napirko)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472036
Boyko2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 32 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Napirko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 62 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it73% 52 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko5wins
AwayNapirko5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoykon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNapirko55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko1Napirko9n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S2Boyko6Napirko4n = 10Boyko took 6 of 10
S3Boyko5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S4Boyko6Napirko3n = 9Boyko took 6 of 9
S5Boyko4Napirko3n = 7Boyko took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoNapirkoB − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match41.943.4−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 505 vs 443 / 87146.5%50.9%235 / 505 vs 443 / 871Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoBoyko 2.20/Napirko 1.61
Hit
What we said
65.7%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 07:35V. Boyko—51191152O. Napirko—119114113
WJun 27 · 13:05V. Boyko—771111133O. Napirko—111135112
WJun 21 · 07:35V. Boyko—811119113O. Napirko—11761192
LJun 20 · 16:35V. Boyko—811151162O. Napirko—118178113
WJun 6 · 16:35V. Boyko—11511113O. Napirko—711991
LJun 6 · 24:30V. Boyko—8860O. Napirko—1111113
WMay 31 · 07:05V. Boyko—713119133O. Napirko—1111511112
WMay 30 · 18:05V. Boyko—713511113O. Napirko—111111552
LMay 30 · 24:30V. Boyko—541161O. Napirko—11119113
LMay 8 · 22:30V. Boyko—411101162O. Napirko—117124113
V. Boyko10
LSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WAug 23 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.36101111532V. Boyko3.00125811113WAug 23 · 09:35V. Boyko1.53111168113O. Mitla2.3856111152WAug 23 · 08:35V. Boyko1.73111187123M. Smyrnov2.00581111102LAug 23 · 07:05V. Boyko2.201144121O. Hura1.6191111143WAug 23 · 05:05V. Boyko1.611111123Y. Shmyndra2.2078100WAug 22 · 18:05V. Boyko1.57111111113O. Mitla2.25913681WAug 22 · 15:05V. Boyko3.501111113A. Kotyk1.282730WAug 22 · 13:35V. Boyko1.571031112123Y. Shmyndra2.251211910112LAug 22 · 12:05V. Boyko2.1011770A. Shypilov1.671311113
O. Napirko10
WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181
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