TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472243
Played Aug 22Finished
Vitalii Boyko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
101231111912101211
Yurii Shmyndra
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeVitalii Boyko to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 12-11
Point 101 set 5, 12-11 — our read held Vitalii Boyko at 55.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 8–2 Yurii Shmyndra Yurii Shmyndra has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Boyko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Boyko
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1488 vs Shmyndra 1593
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 20% vs Shmyndra 40%
Shmyndra
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 20% vs Shmyndra 50%
Shmyndra
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko -2 · Shmyndra +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Boyko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boyko form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 1.57 / Shmyndra 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Boyko)-4.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12472243
Boyko1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 46 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Shmyndra2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 45 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko8wins
AwayShmyndra2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBoyko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoyko85.7%6 of 7
AwayShmyndra33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko7Shmyndra3n = 10Boyko took 7 of 10
S2Boyko7Shmyndra3n = 10Boyko took 7 of 10
S3Boyko9Shmyndra1n = 10Boyko took 9 of 10
S4Boyko3Shmyndra2n = 5Boyko took 3 of 5
S5Boyko2Shmyndra2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoShmyndraB − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.933.7+4.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 507 vs 70 / 15746.6%44.6%236 / 507 vs 70 / 157Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoykoBoyko 1.57/Shmyndra 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Boyko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Boyko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 13:35V. Boyko—1031112123Y. Shmyndra—1211910112
LAug 21 · 21:00V. Boyko—91113762Y. Shmyndra—1181111113
WAug 16 · 04:35V. Boyko—1111113Y. Shmyndra—9570
LAug 15 · 15:35V. Boyko—13511942Y. Shmyndra—1111511113
WJun 28 · 06:05V. Boyko—1111113Y. Shmyndra—7490
WJun 27 · 14:05V. Boyko—51121193Y. Shmyndra—11611662
WJun 6 · 15:05V. Boyko—1111113Y. Shmyndra—9890
WMay 31 · 05:05V. Boyko—1211113Y. Shmyndra—10750
WMay 30 · 15:05V. Boyko—1111123Y. Shmyndra—97100
WMay 29 · 23:30V. Boyko—11412113Y. Shmyndra—2111051
V. Boyko10
LSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WAug 23 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.36101111532V. Boyko3.00125811113WAug 23 · 09:35V. Boyko1.53111168113O. Mitla2.3856111152WAug 23 · 08:35V. Boyko1.73111187123M. Smyrnov2.00581111102LAug 23 · 07:05V. Boyko2.201144121O. Hura1.6191111143WAug 23 · 05:05V. Boyko1.611111123Y. Shmyndra2.2078100WAug 22 · 18:05V. Boyko1.57111111113O. Mitla2.25913681LAug 22 · 16:35V. Boyko2.20211891O. Napirko1.6111711113WAug 22 · 15:05V. Boyko3.501111113A. Kotyk1.282730LAug 22 · 12:05V. Boyko2.1011770A. Shypilov1.671311113
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681LAug 23 · 05:05V. Boyko1.611111123Y. Shmyndra2.2078100
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