TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12477714
Played Aug 23Finished
Vitalii Boyko
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181210––––
Yurii Shmyndra
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Boyko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Vitalii Boyko at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 8–2 Yurii Shmyndra Yurii Shmyndra has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:19What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Boyko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Boyko
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1512 vs Shmyndra 1573
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 60% vs Shmyndra 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 40% vs Shmyndra 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko +1 · Shmyndra +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Boyko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shmyndra form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 1.61 / Shmyndra 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Boyko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12477714
Boyko1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 46 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Shmyndra2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 45 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko8wins
AwayShmyndra2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBoyko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoyko85.7%6 of 7
AwayShmyndra33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko7Shmyndra3n = 10Boyko took 7 of 10
S2Boyko7Shmyndra3n = 10Boyko took 7 of 10
S3Boyko9Shmyndra1n = 10Boyko took 9 of 10
S4Boyko3Shmyndra2n = 5Boyko took 3 of 5
S5Boyko2Shmyndra2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoShmyndraB − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.933.7+4.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 504 vs 72 / 16146.8%44.7%236 / 504 vs 72 / 161Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoykoBoyko 1.61/Shmyndra 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Boyko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Boyko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 13:35V. Boyko—1031112123Y. Shmyndra—1211910112
LAug 21 · 21:00V. Boyko—91113762Y. Shmyndra—1181111113
WAug 16 · 04:35V. Boyko—1111113Y. Shmyndra—9570
LAug 15 · 15:35V. Boyko—13511942Y. Shmyndra—1111511113
WJun 28 · 06:05V. Boyko—1111113Y. Shmyndra—7490
WJun 27 · 14:05V. Boyko—51121193Y. Shmyndra—11611662
WJun 6 · 15:05V. Boyko—1111113Y. Shmyndra—9890
WMay 31 · 05:05V. Boyko—1211113Y. Shmyndra—10750
WMay 30 · 15:05V. Boyko—1111123Y. Shmyndra—97100
WMay 29 · 23:30V. Boyko—11412113Y. Shmyndra—2111051
V. Boyko10
LSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WAug 23 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.36101111532V. Boyko3.00125811113WAug 23 · 09:35V. Boyko1.53111168113O. Mitla2.3856111152WAug 23 · 08:35V. Boyko1.73111187123M. Smyrnov2.00581111102LAug 23 · 07:05V. Boyko2.201144121O. Hura1.6191111143WAug 22 · 18:05V. Boyko1.57111111113O. Mitla2.25913681LAug 22 · 16:35V. Boyko2.20211891O. Napirko1.6111711113WAug 22 · 15:05V. Boyko3.501111113A. Kotyk1.282730WAug 22 · 13:35V. Boyko1.571031112123Y. Shmyndra2.251211910112LAug 22 · 12:05V. Boyko2.1011770A. Shypilov1.671311113
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681LAug 22 · 13:35V. Boyko1.571031112123Y. Shmyndra2.251211910112
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