TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111310
Played Sep 11Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191311––––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Vlasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 63 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Valerii Vlasenko at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 34–32 Serhii Kalenyk Serhii Kalenyk has won 32 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vlasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-32 in 66
Vlasenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1501 vs Kalenyk 1536
Kalenyk
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 40% vs Kalenyk 60%
Kalenyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 40% vs Kalenyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -3 · Kalenyk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalenyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 1.80 / Kalenyk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalenyk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111310
Vlasenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 45 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it67% 30 of 45
Kalenyk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 78 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko7wins
AwayKalenyk3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko80%4 of 5
AwayKalenyk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Vlasenko5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Vlasenko4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S4Vlasenko7Kalenyk2n = 9Vlasenko took 7 of 9
S5Vlasenko4Kalenyk2n = 6Vlasenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoKalenykV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.242.9+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 933 vs 346 / 73243.6%47.3%407 / 933 vs 346 / 732Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykVlasenko 1.80/Kalenyk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko52118714123S. Kalenyk506111112102
LSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko49681111132S. Kalenyk50111176153
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko115420S. Kalenyk331111113
WSep 5 · 14:05V. Vlasenko3811411123S. Kalenyk315115101
WSep 4 · 22:00V. Vlasenko45511612113S. Kalenyk44117111052
WSep 3 · 24:15V. Vlasenko4111118113S. Kalenyk32861171
LAug 16 · 08:05V. Vlasenko581911117102S. Kalenyk591761311123
WAug 15 · 18:05V. Vlasenko4414119103S. Kalenyk391281181
WAug 14 · 01:15V. Vlasenko43211118113S. Kalenyk4511791172
WAug 12 · 21:45V. Vlasenko51581111163S. Kalenyk46111128142
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152LSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113LSep 11 · 21:30V. Vlasenko2.0071080O. Hura1.731112113LSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83101111123V. Vlasenko1.831249101WSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102WSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972LSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.101161171O. Hura1.6713119113WSep 9 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.917911151V. Vlasenko1.8011112173
S. Kalenyk10
LSep 12 · 19:05O. Napirko1.911111113S. Kalenyk1.809870WSep 12 · 17:35S. Kalenyk2.201111113M. Smyrnov1.619550WSep 12 · 15:35A. Shypilov2.106580S. Kalenyk1.671111113LSep 12 · 13:35V. Boyko1.9198111343S. Kalenyk1.80111151122WSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583LSep 12 · 03:00S. Kalenyk1.67117691O. Hura2.1041111113LSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551WSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113LSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102
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