TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117561
Played Sep 12Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511811––––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:12 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 54.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 42–45 Serhii Kalenyk Anton Shypilov has won 42 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:12What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kalenyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-45 in 87
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1520 vs Kalenyk 1501
Shypilov
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 60% vs Kalenyk 20%
Shypilov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 60% vs Kalenyk 40%
Shypilov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +2 · Kalenyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kalenyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.10 / Kalenyk 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kalenyk)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13117561
Shypilov2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 185 of 400
Down 0–1, comes back28% 60 of 217
Down 0–2, comes back12% 13 of 111
Kalenyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 113 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it71% 85 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov4wins
AwayKalenyk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKalenyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov75%3 of 4
AwayKalenyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S2Shypilov3Kalenyk7n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S3Shypilov5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Shypilov3Kalenyk4n = 7Kalenyk took 4 of 7
S5Shypilov2Kalenyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKalenykS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.739.0−3.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 791 vs 347 / 73745.8%47.1%362 / 791 vs 347 / 737Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykShypilov 2.10/Kalenyk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov46111113113S. Kalenyk33581551
WSep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov47116118113S. Kalenyk4581171182
WSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov48961111113S. Kalenyk4011119362
LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov3811411842S. Kalenyk47611811113
LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov216870S. Kalenyk331111113
LAug 20 · 01:45A. Shypilov376111191S. Kalenyk4311813113
WAug 18 · 22:15A. Shypilov45111211113S. Kalenyk38914781
LAug 16 · 05:05A. Shypilov153660S. Kalenyk331111113
LAug 15 · 12:05A. Shypilov4251111692S. Kalenyk45115711113
LAug 13 · 21:15A. Shypilov184590S. Kalenyk331111113
A. Shypilov10
WSep 12 · 16:35V. Boyko2.1061251A. Shypilov1.671110112WSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113WSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100LSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152WSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551LSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 11 · 22:30A. Shypilov1.61111156112V. Boyko2.20771111133WSep 11 · 20:30A. Shypilov2.1012119113O. Hura1.671071191WSep 10 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83101111123V. Vlasenko1.831249101LSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143
S. Kalenyk10
LSep 12 · 13:35V. Boyko1.9198111343S. Kalenyk1.80111151122WSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583LSep 12 · 03:00S. Kalenyk1.67117691O. Hura2.1041111113LSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551LSep 11 · 23:00V. Vlasenko1.801111133S. Kalenyk1.9189110WSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102LSep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00116118113S. Kalenyk1.7381171182
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