TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117081
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 17–27 Serhii Kalenyk Oleh Napirko has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:33What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kalenyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-27 in 44
Kalenyk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1557 vs Kalenyk 1563
Kalenyk
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 60% vs Kalenyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 70% vs Kalenyk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +1 · Kalenyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.91 / Kalenyk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalenyk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13117081
Napirko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Kalenyk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 113 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it71% 85 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko71.4%5 of 7
AwayKalenyk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko7Kalenyk3n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S2Napirko6Kalenyk4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S3Napirko5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Napirko3Kalenyk3n = 6split evenly
S5Napirko1Kalenyk3n = 4Kalenyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoKalenykN − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.7+1.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 859 vs 349 / 73950.2%47.2%431 / 859 vs 349 / 739Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykNapirko 1.91/Kalenyk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko322101191S. Kalenyk4011126113
LAug 20 · 02:45O. Napirko269980S. Kalenyk331111113
LAug 13 · 23:15O. Napirko3911117372S. Kalenyk42541111113
WAug 4 · 20:15O. Napirko331111113S. Kalenyk238960
LAug 3 · 20:45O. Napirko4411491192S. Kalenyk51911119113
WJul 31 · 24:15O. Napirko501171110113S. Kalenyk4161171252
WJul 28 · 20:15O. Napirko4211119113S. Kalenyk35971181
WJul 22 · 20:45O. Napirko381116113S. Kalenyk3071490
LJul 21 · 23:15O. Napirko4551191192S. Kalenyk49118118113
WJul 18 · 17:05O. Napirko341211113S. Kalenyk2310850
O. Napirko10
WSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 15:05V. Boyko2.101111811113O. Napirko1.6751311892WSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 12 · 17:35S. Kalenyk2.201111113M. Smyrnov1.619550WSep 12 · 15:35A. Shypilov2.106580S. Kalenyk1.671111113LSep 12 · 13:35V. Boyko1.9198111343S. Kalenyk1.80111151122WSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583LSep 12 · 03:00S. Kalenyk1.67117691O. Hura2.1041111113LSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551LSep 11 · 23:00V. Vlasenko1.801111133S. Kalenyk1.9189110WSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113
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