TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116860
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131012117115––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 33–27 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 27 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-27 in 60
Napirko
Correct
gap of 6 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1554 vs Smyrnov 1570
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 80% vs Smyrnov 20%
Napirko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 60% vs Smyrnov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -1 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.83 / Smyrnov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smyrnov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116860
Napirko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Smyrnov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko8wins
AwaySmyrnov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNapirko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko100%6 of 6
AwaySmyrnov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko6Smyrnov4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S2Napirko8Smyrnov2n = 10Napirko took 8 of 10
S3Napirko6Smyrnov4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S4Napirko3Smyrnov2n = 5Napirko took 3 of 5
S5Napirko3Smyrnov1n = 4Napirko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoSmyrnovN − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.232.3+8.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 856 vs 401 / 81650.1%49.1%429 / 856 vs 401 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovNapirko 1.83/Smyrnov 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko331111113M. Smyrnov175660
LAug 24 · 20:15O. Napirko47611101192M. Smyrnov45112129113
WAug 17 · 21:45O. Napirko351311113M. Smyrnov2111550
WAug 13 · 21:45O. Napirko541191211113M. Smyrnov50131110882
LAug 9 · 06:35O. Napirko248970M. Smyrnov331111113
WAug 4 · 01:15O. Napirko4011117113M. Smyrnov30661171
WJul 30 · 20:45O. Napirko331111113M. Smyrnov134450
WJul 28 · 23:15O. Napirko521111109113M. Smyrnov4359121162
WJul 22 · 24:45O. Napirko351111133M. Smyrnov1816110
WJul 19 · 05:35O. Napirko591014177113M. Smyrnov531212151132
O. Napirko10
LSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko1.671071111113M. Smyrnov2.1012117642WSep 11 · 19:05Y. Kravets1.807890M. Smyrnov1.911111113LSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113LSep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.7381111113M. Smyrnov2.00119991LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660
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