TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117041
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
101271156––––
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-6
Point 51 set 3, 5-6 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 73.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 14–44 Oleh Napirko Oleksii Mitla has won 14 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-44 in 58
Napirko
Correct
gap of 30 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1437 vs Napirko 1533
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 20% vs Napirko 60%
Napirko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 40% vs Napirko 70%
Napirko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla -3 · Napirko -1
Mitla
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 3.25 / Napirko 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Napirko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13117041
Mitla3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 165 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 233
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 133
Napirko1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 72 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 60 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla1wins
AwayNapirko9wins
Napirko leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitlan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNapirko100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla1Napirko9n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S2Mitla1Napirko9n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S3Mitla2Napirko8n = 10Napirko took 8 of 10
S4Mitla1Napirko2n = 3Napirko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaNapirkoM − NBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match27.936.7−8.8per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 773 vs 430 / 85843.5%50.1%336 / 773 vs 430 / 858Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoMitla 3.25/Napirko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 02:45O. Mitla207940O. Napirko331111113
LSep 6 · 11:35O. Mitla27571141O. Napirko4211119113
WAug 26 · 21:45O. Mitla4511118153O. Napirko398711131
LAug 25 · 24:45O. Mitla26610100O. Napirko351112123
LAug 22 · 14:35O. Mitla34913120O. Napirko401115143
LAug 19 · 22:45O. Mitla2210480O. Napirko341211113
LAug 18 · 24:45O. Mitla206680O. Napirko331111113
LAug 13 · 20:15O. Mitla226880O. Napirko331111113
LAug 5 · 24:45O. Mitla30109110O. Napirko361211133
LAug 4 · 24:15O. Mitla33941191O. Napirko4211119113
O. Mitla10
WSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko1.572570O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113LSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583WSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura1.6711611113O. Mitla2.10411781WSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140
O. Napirko10
LSep 12 · 15:05V. Boyko2.101111811113O. Napirko1.6751311892WSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Mitla
Nothing scheduled
O. Napirko
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