TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117479
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11510121416811––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 87 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 55–45 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 45 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-45 in 100
Mitla
Wrong
gap of 10 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1453 vs Smyrnov 1558
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 40% vs Smyrnov 20%
Mitla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 40% vs Smyrnov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla -2 · Smyrnov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 1.83 / Smyrnov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smyrnov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13117479
Mitla1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Smyrnov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla6wins
AwaySmyrnov4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitlan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySmyrnov50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Mitla5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Mitla6Smyrnov4n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S4Mitla4Smyrnov5n = 9Smyrnov took 5 of 9
S5Mitla5Smyrnov1n = 6Mitla took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaSmyrnovM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.442.9−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 772 vs 401 / 81743.5%49.1%336 / 772 vs 401 / 817Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovMitla 1.83/Smyrnov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 01:45O. Mitla30311881M. Smyrnov3911611113
WSep 5 · 02:00O. Mitla4011611123M. Smyrnov389118101
LSep 2 · 21:15O. Mitla34951191M. Smyrnov4211119113
WSep 1 · 21:45O. Mitla485111011113M. Smyrnov3911312942
WAug 30 · 10:05O. Mitla48115129113M. Smyrnov49911101182
LAug 29 · 14:05O. Mitla142660M. Smyrnov331111113
WAug 29 · 03:00O. Mitla49512127133M. Smyrnov5311101011112
LAug 25 · 02:45O. Mitla505111111122M. Smyrnov50111357143
WAug 23 · 06:35O. Mitla43511511113M. Smyrnov4611811972
WAug 17 · 23:45O. Mitla48711118113M. Smyrnov4011761152
O. Mitla10
LSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113LSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583WSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura1.6711611113O. Mitla2.10411781WSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko1.671071111113M. Smyrnov2.1012117642WSep 11 · 19:05Y. Kravets1.807890M. Smyrnov1.911111113LSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113LSep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.7381111113M. Smyrnov2.00119991LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191
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