TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121977
Played Sep 13Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116117711118
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Vlasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Valerii Vlasenko at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 43–47 Valerii Vlasenko Anton Shypilov has won 43 of their 90 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vlasenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-47 in 90
Vlasenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1548 vs Vlasenko 1515
Shypilov
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 80% vs Vlasenko 40%
Shypilov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 60% vs Vlasenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +2 · Vlasenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vlasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 1.91 / Vlasenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vlasenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13121977
Shypilov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog46% won 164 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back30% 57 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 101
Vlasenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 35 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it66% 23 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov5wins
AwayVlasenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov66.7%4 of 6
AwayVlasenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov6Vlasenko4n = 10Shypilov took 6 of 10
S2Shypilov5Vlasenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Shypilov2Vlasenko8n = 10Vlasenko took 8 of 10
S4Shypilov4Vlasenko6n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S5Shypilov3Vlasenko0n = 3Shypilov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovVlasenkoS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.5+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 794 vs 409 / 93645.8%43.7%364 / 794 vs 409 / 936Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VlasenkoShypilov 1.91/Vlasenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vlasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 24:30A. Shypilov47111114113V. Vlasenko36781651
LAug 26 · 22:45A. Shypilov441611981V. Vlasenko4918911113
LAug 25 · 22:45A. Shypilov31127481V. Vlasenko43101111113
LAug 21 · 21:30A. Shypilov4110117131V. Vlasenko4612811153
WAug 16 · 07:05A. Shypilov46611711113V. Vlasenko3811411752
WAug 15 · 16:05A. Shypilov4211911113V. Vlasenko30711841
LAug 13 · 22:45A. Shypilov3910117111V. Vlasenko4412811133
WAug 13 · 03:15A. Shypilov49117119113V. Vlasenko4781191182
LAug 12 · 03:15A. Shypilov32117681V. Vlasenko4291111113
WAug 9 · 07:05A. Shypilov501261011113V. Vlasenko40101112252
A. Shypilov10
WSep 12 · 18:35A. Shypilov2.001112113M. Smyrnov1.7371050WSep 12 · 16:35V. Boyko2.1061251152A. Shypilov1.671110117113LSep 12 · 15:35A. Shypilov2.106580S. Kalenyk1.671111113WSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113WSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100LSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152WSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551LSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 11 · 22:30A. Shypilov1.61111156112V. Boyko2.20771111133WSep 11 · 20:30A. Shypilov2.1012119113O. Hura1.671071191
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161WSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152LSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113WSep 11 · 23:00V. Vlasenko1.801111133S. Kalenyk1.9189110LSep 11 · 21:30V. Vlasenko2.0071080O. Hura1.731112113LSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83101111123V. Vlasenko1.831249101WSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102WSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972
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