TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117429
Played Sep 12Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210115––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:33 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 56 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 56.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 46–56 Mykyta Smyrnov Anton Shypilov has won 46 of their 102 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-56 in 102
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 10 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1512 vs Smyrnov 1536
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 60% vs Smyrnov 40%
Shypilov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 60% vs Smyrnov 40%
Shypilov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +1 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.00 / Smyrnov 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Smyrnov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13117429
Shypilov2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 185 of 400
Down 0–1, comes back28% 60 of 217
Down 0–2, comes back12% 13 of 111
Smyrnov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 130 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it75% 94 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov2wins
AwaySmyrnov8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov0%0 of 3
AwaySmyrnov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov3Smyrnov7n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Shypilov5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Shypilov2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S4Shypilov4Smyrnov4n = 8split evenly
S5Shypilov1Smyrnov3n = 4Smyrnov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovSmyrnovShypilov − SmyrnovBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.143.4−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 793 vs 402 / 81945.8%49.1%363 / 793 vs 402 / 819Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovShypilov 2.00/Smyrnov 1.73
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 23:30A. Shypilov2610970M. Smyrnov341211113
LAug 25 · 23:45A. Shypilov3911541182M. Smyrnov50811119113
LAug 22 · 01:30A. Shypilov481110116102M. Smyrnov52812911123
WAug 18 · 23:15A. Shypilov43101111113M. Smyrnov35127791
LAug 13 · 23:45A. Shypilov2887130M. Smyrnov371111153
LAug 13 · 01:15A. Shypilov4351181182M. Smyrnov47118116113
LAug 12 · 01:15A. Shypilov366126121M. Smyrnov46111011143
WAug 9 · 08:35A. Shypilov591011918113M. Smyrnov49122111682
LAug 8 · 19:05A. Shypilov358125101M. Smyrnov44111011123
LAug 6 · 23:45A. Shypilov341149101M. Smyrnov4061111123
A. Shypilov10
LSep 13 · 11:05A. Shypilov1.911187101O. Mitla1.8061111123LSep 13 · 09:05V. Boyko2.101111113A. Shypilov1.673590LSep 13 · 08:05A. Shypilov2.108930S. Kalenyk1.671111113LSep 13 · 07:05O. Napirko1.809101112113A. Shypilov1.91111261092WSep 13 · 05:35A. Shypilov1.91811117113V. Vlasenko1.8011671182WSep 12 · 16:35V. Boyko2.1061251152A. Shypilov1.671110117113LSep 12 · 15:35A. Shypilov2.106580S. Kalenyk1.671111113WSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113WSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100LSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 12 · 17:35S. Kalenyk2.201111113M. Smyrnov1.619550WSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko1.671071111113M. Smyrnov2.1012117642WSep 11 · 19:05Y. Kravets1.807890M. Smyrnov1.911111113LSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113LSep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.7381111113M. Smyrnov2.00119991LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140
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