TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13123045
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91110121161210119
Anton Shypilov
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Anton Shypilov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 34–34 Anton Shypilov Dead even across their 68 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-34 in 68
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1590 vs Shypilov 1548
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 60% vs Shypilov 80%
Shypilov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 70% vs Shypilov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -1 · Shypilov +3
Shypilov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shypilov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.80 / Shypilov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Napirko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13123045
Napirko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 66 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it74% 57 of 77
Shypilov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 164 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back30% 57 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko5wins
AwayShypilov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko75%3 of 4
AwayShypilov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko4Shypilov6n = 10Shypilov took 6 of 10
S2Napirko6Shypilov4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S3Napirko2Shypilov8n = 10Shypilov took 8 of 10
S4Napirko6Shypilov1n = 7Napirko took 6 of 7
S5Napirko2Shypilov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoShypilovN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.5+1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoShypilovBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 857 vs 365 / 79650.2%45.9%430 / 857 vs 365 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.80/Shypilov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 07:05O. Napirko539101112113A. Shypilov48111261092
LSep 12 · 13:05O. Napirko1936100A. Shypilov341111123
WSep 9 · 24:45O. Napirko43111110113A. Shypilov28741251
WAug 27 · 24:45O. Napirko50911811113A. Shypilov3611511272
LAug 22 · 18:35O. Napirko4571191172A. Shypilov45119113113
WAug 19 · 23:45O. Napirko331111113A. Shypilov219840
LAug 14 · 24:45O. Napirko4011910101A. Shypilov4051112123
LAug 9 · 09:35O. Napirko48131261252A. Shypilov5715101110113
WAug 5 · 02:15O. Napirko4011117113A. Shypilov32861171
LAug 3 · 22:45O. Napirko2361070A. Shypilov341112113
O. Napirko10
LSep 13 · 05:05O. Napirko1.73711341S. Kalenyk2.0011511113WSep 12 · 19:05O. Napirko1.911111113S. Kalenyk1.809870WSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 15:05V. Boyko2.101111811113O. Napirko1.6751311892WSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113
A. Shypilov10
WSep 13 · 05:35A. Shypilov1.91811117113V. Vlasenko1.8011671182WSep 12 · 18:35A. Shypilov2.001112113M. Smyrnov1.7371050WSep 12 · 16:35V. Boyko2.1061251152A. Shypilov1.671110117113LSep 12 · 15:35A. Shypilov2.106580S. Kalenyk1.671111113WSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113WSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100LSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152WSep 12 · 01:00A. Shypilov2.00111113113S. Kalenyk1.73581551LSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113
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