TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121980
Played Sep 13Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115115911116––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Vlasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Valerii Vlasenko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 39–39 Oleksii Mitla Dead even across their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:18What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vlasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-39 in 78
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1516 vs Mitla 1463
Vlasenko
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 40% vs Mitla 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 50% vs Mitla 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -1 · Mitla +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vlasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 1.80 / Mitla 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vlasenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13121980
Vlasenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 35 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it66% 23 of 35
Mitla1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 124 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko5wins
AwayMitla5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayMitla75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko6Mitla4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Vlasenko6Mitla4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S3Vlasenko2Mitla8n = 10Mitla took 8 of 10
S4Vlasenko4Mitla4n = 8split evenly
S5Vlasenko4Mitla3n = 7Vlasenko took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoMitlaV − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.445.2+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 933 vs 338 / 77743.7%43.5%408 / 933 vs 338 / 777Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VlasenkoVlasenko 1.80/Mitla 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vlasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko4811991272O. Mitla507111110113
WSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko541211713113O. Mitla53109111582
LSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko2284100O. Mitla341111123
WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko481111411113O. Mitla4113811452
LSep 5 · 01:00V. Vlasenko48101111792O. Mitla46126611113
WSep 3 · 01:15V. Vlasenko521341112123O. Mitla5511111310102
WAug 30 · 08:35V. Vlasenko531112811113O. Mitla47810111352
WAug 28 · 23:00V. Vlasenko371111153O. Mitla2548130
LAug 26 · 20:45V. Vlasenko531111912102O. Mitla559131110123
LAug 24 · 22:45V. Vlasenko398137111O. Mitla46111111133
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 13 · 05:35A. Shypilov1.91811117113V. Vlasenko1.8011671182WSep 12 · 02:00V. Vlasenko1.67811118113A. Shypilov2.1011971152LSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113WSep 11 · 23:00V. Vlasenko1.801111133S. Kalenyk1.9189110LSep 11 · 21:30V. Vlasenko2.0071080O. Hura1.731112113LSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.83101111123V. Vlasenko1.831249101WSep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73118714123S. Kalenyk2.006111112102WSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972
O. Mitla10
WSep 13 · 04:35V. Boyko1.73851111102O. Mitla2.00111188123WSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko1.572570O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113LSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583WSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura1.6711611113O. Mitla2.10411781WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582
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