TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121864
Played Sep 13Finished
Vitalii Boyko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8115111181181012
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii Boyko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Boyko above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 95 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vitalii Boyko at 54.1%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Boyko 21–13 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Mitla beat Boyko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Boyko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-13 in 34
Boyko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boyko 1515 vs Mitla 1445
Boyko
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boyko 60% vs Mitla 20%
Boyko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boyko 50% vs Mitla 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boyko -2 · Mitla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Boyko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoyko 1.73 / Mitla 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Boyko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13121864
Boyko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Mitla2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 124 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoyko6wins
AwayMitla4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBoyko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoyko83.3%5 of 6
AwayMitla75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boyko6Mitla4n = 10Boyko took 6 of 10
S2Boyko5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Boyko5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S4Boyko3Mitla2n = 5Boyko took 3 of 5
S5Boyko2Mitla1n = 3Boyko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoykoMitlaB − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.933.3+1.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoykoMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 479 vs 337 / 77545.9%43.5%220 / 479 vs 337 / 775Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoykoBoyko 1.73/Mitla 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Boyko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko142570O. Mitla331111113
LSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko204790O. Mitla331111113
WAug 23 · 09:35V. Boyko47111168113O. Mitla3856111152
WAug 22 · 18:05V. Boyko44111111113O. Mitla36913681
WAug 1 · 14:05V. Boyko351113113O. Mitla2791170
LAug 1 · 03:00V. Boyko40610111122O. Mitla43111245113
WJun 28 · 10:35V. Boyko331111113O. Mitla198560
LJun 27 · 15:05V. Boyko29137361O. Mitla44111111113
WMay 31 · 08:35V. Boyko331111113O. Mitla155370
WMay 30 · 12:05V. Boyko548111211123O. Mitla45116144102
V. Boyko10
LSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko1.572570O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 16:35V. Boyko2.1061251152A. Shypilov1.671110117113WSep 12 · 15:05V. Boyko2.101111811113O. Napirko1.6751311892WSep 12 · 13:35V. Boyko1.9198111343S. Kalenyk1.80111151122WSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko1.671071111113M. Smyrnov2.1012117642LSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113WSep 12 · 24:30V. Vlasenko2.2071311682V. Boyko1.611111811113LSep 11 · 23:30V. Boyko2.2061250O. Hura1.611114113WSep 11 · 22:30A. Shypilov1.61111156112V. Boyko2.20771111133LSep 11 · 21:00V. Boyko1.80621181S. Kalenyk1.9111116113
O. Mitla10
WSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko1.572570O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113LSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583WSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura1.6711611113O. Mitla2.10411781WSep 12 · 24:00A. Shypilov1.83116911112O. Mitla1.83511117133LSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113
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