TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121906
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911117119911112
Oleksii Mitla
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 91 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 74.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 44–14 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 14 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-14 in 58
Napirko
Correct
gap of 30 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1590 vs Mitla 1463
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 60% vs Mitla 40%
Napirko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 70% vs Mitla 40%
Napirko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +1 · Mitla -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.30 / Mitla 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Napirko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13121906
Napirko1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 66 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it74% 57 of 77
Mitla3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 124 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko9wins
AwayMitla1wins
Napirko leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko100%9 of 9
AwayMitlan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko9Mitla1n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S2Napirko9Mitla1n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S3Napirko8Mitla2n = 10Napirko took 8 of 10
S4Napirko2Mitla1n = 3Napirko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoMitlaN − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.727.9+8.8per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 857 vs 338 / 77750.2%43.5%430 / 857 vs 338 / 777Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.30/Mitla 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko331111113O. Mitla207940
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko4211119113O. Mitla27571141
LAug 26 · 21:45O. Napirko398711131O. Mitla4511118153
WAug 25 · 24:45O. Napirko351112123O. Mitla26610100
WAug 22 · 14:35O. Napirko401115143O. Mitla34913120
WAug 19 · 22:45O. Napirko341211113O. Mitla2210480
WAug 18 · 24:45O. Napirko331111113O. Mitla206680
WAug 13 · 20:15O. Napirko331111113O. Mitla226880
WAug 5 · 24:45O. Napirko361211133O. Mitla30109110
WAug 4 · 24:15O. Napirko4211119113O. Mitla33941191
O. Napirko10
WSep 13 · 09:35O. Napirko1.8071112113V. Vlasenko1.911141081WSep 13 · 07:05O. Napirko1.809101112113A. Shypilov1.91111261092LSep 13 · 05:05O. Napirko1.73711341S. Kalenyk2.0011511113WSep 12 · 19:05O. Napirko1.911111113S. Kalenyk1.809870WSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 15:05V. Boyko2.101111811113O. Napirko1.6751311892WSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 13:05A. Shypilov2.001111123O. Napirko1.7336100WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113
O. Mitla10
LSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161WSep 13 · 04:35V. Boyko1.73851111102O. Mitla2.00111188123WSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko1.572570O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113LSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583WSep 12 · 02:30V. Boyko1.574790O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura1.6711611113O. Mitla2.10411781LSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940
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