Jan Mares vs David Sabuka 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13117715

Played Sep 12Finished

Jan Mares

Home

2.38

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Lost last 4

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

3111311131175––

David Sabuka

Away

1.53

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%

Graded at full time

David Sabuka to win

60.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJan Mares above · David Sabuka below

Set 1 · 3-11

Set 2 · 13-11

Set 3 · 13-11

Set 4 · 7-5

Point 74 set 4, 7-5 — our read held David Sabuka at 60.5%

74 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 23:53

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Sabuka

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Mares 1174 vs Sabuka 1322

Sabuka

Wrong

both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mares 20% vs Sabuka 60%

Sabuka

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mares 10% vs Sabuka 50%

Sabuka

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mares -4 · Sabuka +1

Mares

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Sabuka) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMares 2.38 / Sabuka 1.53

Signal prob.36% / 64%

Edge (Sabuka)+2.8pp

Setka Cup · #13117715

Mares2.38

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog34% won 13 of 38

Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18

Sabuka1.53

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite51% won 64 of 125

Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29

Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMaresSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 124 vs 243 / 51439.5%47.3%49 / 124 vs 243 / 514Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Sabuka

Mares 2.38/Sabuka 1.53

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

63.6%

Sabuka · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Mares won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

J. Mares10