TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116762
Played Sep 12Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61111510121012––
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 39–48 Yurii Parahailo Ruslan Novak has won 39 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-48 in 87
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 9 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1524 vs Parahailo 1592
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Parahailo 80%
Parahailo
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 50% vs Parahailo 70%
Parahailo
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -1 · Parahailo -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.80 / Parahailo 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116762
Novak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 100 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 98
Parahailo1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 79 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayParahailo4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak80%4 of 5
AwayParahailo60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S3Novak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S4Novak4Parahailo4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakParahailoN − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.7−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 494 vs 402 / 80352.8%50.1%261 / 494 vs 402 / 803Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.80/Parahailo 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 07:05R. Novak495101112113Y. Parahailo50111291082
WJul 26 · 18:35R. Novak4111811113Y. Parahailo34711791
WJul 25 · 23:00R. Novak351111133Y. Parahailo2494110
LJul 19 · 18:35R. Novak28117641Y. Parahailo4071111113
WJun 1 · 08:05R. Novak3841112113Y. Parahailo341161071
LMay 31 · 14:05R. Novak389117111Y. Parahailo4111611133
WMay 25 · 11:05R. Novak491111511113Y. Parahailo4575111392
WMay 24 · 15:35R. Novak371111693Y. Parahailo34961181
LMay 23 · 23:30R. Novak3810711101Y. Parahailo4212117123
LMay 18 · 09:35R. Novak203890Y. Parahailo331111113
R. Novak10
LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221WSep 11 · 22:15R. Novak1.6111911173I. Pytsko2.207117151WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113
Y. Parahailo10
LSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162
Upcoming Matches
R. Novak
Y. Parahailo
Sep 13 · 24:00Y. Parahailo3.50M. Khomenko1.28—Sep 13 · 01:30Y. Parahailo2.50O. Rodin1.50—Sep 13 · 02:30Y. Parahailo1.53V. Kovalchuk2.38—Sep 13 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.53V. Kovalchuk2.38—Sep 13 · 14:05Y. Parahailo2.50O. Rodin1.50—Sep 13 · 15:05Y. Parahailo1.91R. Novak1.80—Sep 13 · 17:05Y. Parahailo3.00Y. Kolos1.36—Sep 13 · 19:05Y. Parahailo3.50M. Khomenko1.28—
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