TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111597
Played Sep 11Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111181012112––
Ruslan Novak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 78 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 0–2 Ruslan Novak Mykhailo Potapov has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1545 vs Novak 1541
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Novak 80%
Novak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Novak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -2 · Novak +4
Novak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.20 / Novak 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Novak)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111597
Potapov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Novak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 101 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePotapov0wins
AwayNovak2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderNovak leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricPotapovNovakP − NBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.540.5−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 430 vs 260 / 49047.4%53.1%204 / 430 vs 260 / 490Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakPotapov 2.20/Novak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LFeb 25 · 10:35M. Potapov246990R. Novak331111113
LFeb 24 · 16:05M. Potapov51119119112R. Novak48511811133
M. Potapov10
WSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113WSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152LSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113LSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113
R. Novak10
LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661WSep 11 · 22:15R. Novak1.6111911173I. Pytsko2.207117151WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730
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