TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116818
Played Sep 13Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115117––––
Ruslan Novak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 26–28 Ruslan Novak Maksym Khomenko has won 26 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-28 in 54
Novak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1660 vs Novak 1507
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 60% vs Novak 20%
Khomenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 70% vs Novak 50%
Khomenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +2 · Novak -3
Novak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.00 / Novak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116818
Khomenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 66 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 63
Novak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 95 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it75% 70 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko4wins
AwayNovak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayNovak57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko3Novak7n = 10Novak took 7 of 10
S2Khomenko5Novak5n = 10split evenly
S3Khomenko5Novak5n = 10split evenly
S4Khomenko1Novak7n = 8Novak took 7 of 8
S5Khomenko3Novak1n = 4Khomenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoNovakK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.140.0−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 848 vs 261 / 49654.7%52.6%464 / 848 vs 261 / 496Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakKhomenko 2.00/Novak 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko25114461R. Novak4071111113
LAug 2 · 14:35M. Khomenko22531131R. Novak4211119113
WAug 1 · 22:30M. Khomenko559111311113R. Novak49117111372
WJul 26 · 01:00M. Khomenko3811124113R. Novak356101181
LJul 12 · 01:00M. Khomenko165650R. Novak331111113
WJul 5 · 17:05M. Khomenko44511116113R. Novak4411851192
LJun 29 · 09:35M. Khomenko27741151R. Novak3911116113
LJun 28 · 17:05M. Khomenko269980R. Novak331111113
WJun 28 · 01:00M. Khomenko47511119113R. Novak4111691142
LJun 22 · 05:05M. Khomenko511111109102R. Novak44631211123
M. Khomenko10
WSep 13 · 24:00M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Parahailo3.505760WSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162LSep 12 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.7351111962O. Rodin2.00119411113WSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140
R. Novak10
LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221WSep 11 · 22:15R. Novak1.6111911173I. Pytsko2.207117151WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730
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