TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111027
Played Sep 11Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1179111171715––
Ivan Pytsko
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Ivan Pytsko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 17-15
Point 88 set 4, 17-15 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 55.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 7–5 Ivan Pytsko Ivan Pytsko has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Novak
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1529 vs Pytsko 1538
Pytsko
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 60% vs Pytsko 80%
Pytsko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 50% vs Pytsko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +3 · Pytsko +2
Novak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pytsko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.61 / Pytsko 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Novak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111027
Novak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 101 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Pytsko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 26 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayPytsko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak83.3%5 of 6
AwayPytsko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak6Pytsko4n = 10Novak took 6 of 10
S2Novak9Pytsko1n = 10Novak took 9 of 10
S3Novak5Pytsko5n = 10split evenly
S4Novak5Pytsko2n = 7Novak took 5 of 7
S5Novak0Pytsko3n = 3Pytsko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakPytskoN − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.333.3+7.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakPytskoBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 489 vs 330 / 59153%55.8%259 / 489 vs 330 / 591Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.61/Pytsko 2.20
Hit
What we said
58.1%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJan 19 · 12:35R. Novak—101111692I. Pytsko—129811113
WJan 18 · 16:05R. Novak—111193I. Pytsko—7910
WJan 12 · 07:35R. Novak—12115113I. Pytsko—1051181
LJan 11 · 14:35R. Novak—91191192I. Pytsko—113118103
WJan 8 · 11:55R. Novak—11115113I. Pytsko—431181
LJan 7 · 16:55R. Novak—7111151I. Pytsko—11913103
WMay 7 · 08:05R. Novak—1111113I. Pytsko—7550
WMar 31 · 08:05R. Novak—111111123I. Pytsko—1325101
WMar 30 · 13:35R. Novak—1117113I. Pytsko—41570
LFeb 25 · 08:35R. Novak—11981192I. Pytsko—711116113
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481
I. Pytsko10
WSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 11:35I. Pytsko2.25121011123O. Storozhenko1.5710126101LSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152WSep 9 · 07:35D. Maltsev2.25411861I. Pytsko1.5711811113WSep 9 · 06:35I. Pytsko1.731211125133I. Fashchevskyi2.001471011112LSep 9 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.001211113I. Pytsko1.7310450LSep 8 · 18:35Y. Tebenko2.001111163I. Pytsko1.7378140LSep 8 · 17:35O. Storozhenko1.571111711113I. Pytsko2.2588111382LSep 8 · 16:05M. Potapov2.10115711113I. Pytsko1.6781111772WSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113
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