TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378941
Played Aug 9Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117411411611––
Ruslan Novak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 65 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 26–27 Ruslan Novak Maksym Khomenko has won 26 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:58What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-27 in 53
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1525 vs Novak 1533
Novak
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 40% vs Novak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 40% vs Novak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -1 · Novak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.20 / Novak 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novak)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12378941
Khomenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 62 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back31% 28 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back17% 10 of 60
Novak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 126 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 95 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko4wins
AwayNovak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNovak62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko2Novak8n = 10Novak took 8 of 10
S2Khomenko5Novak5n = 10split evenly
S3Khomenko5Novak5n = 10split evenly
S4Khomenko1Novak6n = 7Novak took 6 of 7
S5Khomenko3Novak1n = 4Khomenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoNovakK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.439.6−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime512 / 898 vs 276 / 51657%53.5%512 / 898 vs 276 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakKhomenko 2.20/Novak 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 14:35M. Khomenko—531131R. Novak—11119113
WAug 1 · 22:30M. Khomenko—9111311113R. Novak—117111372
WJul 26 · 01:00M. Khomenko—11124113R. Novak—6101181
LJul 12 · 01:00M. Khomenko—5650R. Novak—1111113
WJul 5 · 17:05M. Khomenko—511116113R. Novak—11851192
LJun 29 · 09:35M. Khomenko—741151R. Novak—11116113
LJun 28 · 17:05M. Khomenko—9980R. Novak—1111113
WJun 28 · 01:00M. Khomenko—511119113R. Novak—11691142
LJun 22 · 05:05M. Khomenko—1111109102R. Novak—631211123
LJun 21 · 12:35M. Khomenko—12880R. Novak—1411113
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
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