TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384791
Played Aug 9Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10127111012––––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 62 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 71.5%
62 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 2–2 Oleksii Rodin Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rodin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1537 vs Rodin 1573
Rodin
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 60% vs Rodin 40%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 50% vs Rodin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -1 · Rodin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.38 / Rodin 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Rodin)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384791
Novak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 34 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Rodin1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 124 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it97% 59 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it81% 84 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNovak2wins
AwayRodin2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRodin66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak1Rodin3n = 4Rodin took 3 of 4
S2Novak1Rodin3n = 4Rodin took 3 of 4
S3Novak3Rodin1n = 4Novak took 3 of 4
S4Novak1Rodin2n = 3Rodin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricNovakRodinN − RBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.539.8−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 518 vs 141 / 22153.5%63.8%277 / 518 vs 141 / 221Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinNovak 2.38/Rodin 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak—11811113O. Rodin—811481
LAug 3 · 05:35R. Novak—98140O. Rodin—1111163
WAug 2 · 18:35R. Novak—711129113O. Rodin—119101192
LAug 1 · 23:30R. Novak—671181O. Rodin—11117113
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak3.502590O. Alieksieev1.281111113LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
O. Rodin10
WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111LSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481
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