TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384737
Played Aug 9Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211511911––––
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Oleksandr Alieksieev below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 49 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 73.3%
49 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 0–5 Oleksandr Alieksieev Ruslan Novak has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:14What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Alieksieev
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1519 vs Alieksieev 1744
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 225 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Alieksieev 80%
Alieksieev
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 40% vs Alieksieev 80%
Alieksieev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -3 · Alieksieev -1
Novak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Alieksieev) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 3.50 / Alieksieev 1.28
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Alieksieev)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384737
Novak3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 34 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Alieksieev1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 42 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeNovak0wins
AwayAlieksieev5wins
Alieksieev leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayAlieksieev100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak1Alieksieev4n = 5Alieksieev took 4 of 5
S2Novak0Alieksieev5n = 5Alieksieev took 5 of 5
S3Novak0Alieksieev5n = 5Alieksieev took 5 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away480%
These 5 meetings
MetricNovakAlieksieevN − ABasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match24.036.8−12.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakAlieksieevBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 523 vs 109 / 18953.4%57.7%279 / 523 vs 109 / 189Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevNovak 3.50/Alieksieev 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.1%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 9 · 15:05R. Novak—2590O. Alieksieev—1111113
LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak—4460O. Alieksieev—1111113
LJul 27 · 09:05R. Novak—8960O. Alieksieev—1111113
LJul 26 · 15:34R. Novak—176581O. Alieksieev—151111113
LJul 26 · 03:00R. Novak—101380O. Alieksieev—1215103
R. Novak10
WSep 11 · 21:15V. Korobko4.335101151R. Novak1.2011124113WAug 9 · 18:05R. Novak1.57111115113M. Khomenko2.25561781WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak1.531111113V. Kovalchuk2.387730LAug 9 · 13:35R. Novak1.734540V. Ivasiv2.001111113LAug 9 · 12:05R. Novak2.38107100O. Rodin1.531211123LAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113WAug 9 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20114461R. Novak1.6171111113LAug 8 · 23:00V. Ivasiv2.001191212113R. Novak1.73811141092WAug 8 · 22:00R. Novak2.6311811113O. Rodin1.44811481WAug 8 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak1.44911461R. Novak2.6311611113
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 9 · 03:00R. Novak2.754460O. Alieksieev1.401111113
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