TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12440676
Played Aug 16Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311411711––––
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Oleksandr Alieksieev below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 47 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 64.7%
47 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 3–3 Oleksandr Alieksieev Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:26What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1512 vs Alieksieev 1730
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 20% vs Alieksieev 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 50% vs Alieksieev 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -2 · Alieksieev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Alieksieev) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.63 / Alieksieev 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 72%
Edge (Alieksieev)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12440676
Khomenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 67 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back31% 30 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back16% 10 of 63
Alieksieev1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 51 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKhomenko3wins
AwayAlieksieev3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko100%3 of 3
AwayAlieksieev100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko3Alieksieev3n = 6split evenly
S2Khomenko2Alieksieev4n = 6Alieksieev took 4 of 6
S3Khomenko3Alieksieev3n = 6split evenly
S4Khomenko0Alieksieev3n = 3Alieksieev took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKhomenkoAlieksieevK − ABasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match33.234.5−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoAlieksieevBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 895 vs 113 / 19155.9%59.2%500 / 895 vs 113 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevKhomenko 2.63/Alieksieev 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko—3470O. Alieksieev—1111113
LAug 16 · 01:00M. Khomenko—9370O. Alieksieev—1111113
WAug 10 · 10:35M. Khomenko—115119113O. Alieksieev—81181182
LAug 9 · 17:05M. Khomenko—9111041O. Alieksieev—11412113
WAug 8 · 20:30M. Khomenko—1111113O. Alieksieev—3980
WJul 25 · 20:30M. Khomenko—1181111113O. Alieksieev—61141332
M. Khomenko10
LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650LAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev1.538111371Y. Vorsuliak2.3811615113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.