TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12435542
Played Aug 16Finished
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111161315711––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 82 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 67.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 1–0 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Yaroslav Vorsuliak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Alieksieev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1729 vs Vorsuliak 1483
Alieksieev
Wrong
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 60% vs Vorsuliak 0%
Alieksieev
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 70% vs Vorsuliak 20%
Alieksieev
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev -2 · Vorsuliak -5
Vorsuliak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Alieksieev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.53 / Vorsuliak 2.38
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Alieksieev)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12435542
Alieksieev1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 49 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Vorsuliak2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog42% won 103 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back26% 36 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back12% 10 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeAlieksieev1wins
AwayVorsuliak0wins
Alieksieev leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricAlieksieevVorsuliakA − VBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.024.0+16.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 184 vs 432 / 86458.7%50%108 / 184 vs 432 / 864Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.53/Vorsuliak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.8%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 8 · 23:30O. Alieksieev—11711113Y. Vorsuliak—411451
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650
Y. Vorsuliak10
LSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132WAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632LAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172
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