TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12444961
Played Aug 17Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11910121513711911
Oleksandr Alieksieev
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Alieksieev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 108 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 62.8%
108 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 1–1 Oleksandr Alieksieev Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1568 vs Alieksieev 1732
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Alieksieev 80%
Alieksieev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Alieksieev 80%
Alieksieev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Alieksieev +3
Alieksieev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Alieksieev) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Alieksieev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.25 / Alieksieev 1.57
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Alieksieev)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12444961
Kovalchuk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 116 of 255
Down 0–1, comes back27% 34 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Alieksieev1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 55 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKovalchuk1wins
AwayAlieksieev1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKovalchukAlieksieevK − ABasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match35.541.5−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukAlieksieevBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 815 vs 118 / 19747.2%59.9%385 / 815 vs 118 / 197Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevKovalchuk 2.25/Alieksieev 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.9%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 10 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk—11113113O. Alieksieev—881171
LAug 9 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk—6121521O. Alieksieev—111017113
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650LAug 16 · 03:00O. Alieksieev1.538111371Y. Vorsuliak2.3811615113
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