TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481852
Played Aug 24Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141176111012––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 54.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 33–45 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 33 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vorsuliak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-45 in 78
Vorsuliak
Correct
gap of 12 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1580 vs Vorsuliak 1656
Vorsuliak
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Vorsuliak 100%
Vorsuliak
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Vorsuliak 80%
Vorsuliak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -3 · Vorsuliak +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vorsuliak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.91 / Vorsuliak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12481852
Kovalchuk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 119 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back26% 34 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Vorsuliak1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 92 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 66 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk3wins
AwayVorsuliak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk40%2 of 5
AwayVorsuliak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Vorsuliak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk6Vorsuliak4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk2Vorsuliak8n = 10Vorsuliak took 8 of 10
S4Kovalchuk2Vorsuliak7n = 9Vorsuliak took 7 of 9
S5Kovalchuk2Vorsuliak1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukVorsuliakK − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.043.0−4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 830 vs 449 / 88848.1%50.6%399 / 830 vs 449 / 888Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakKovalchuk 1.91/Vorsuliak 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk—711118113Y. Vorsuliak—11991182
LAug 17 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk—159681Y. Vorsuliak—131111113
WAug 16 · 01:38V. Kovalchuk—117711113Y. Vorsuliak—91111872
LAug 15 · 22:00V. Kovalchuk—5111081Y. Vorsuliak—11912113
LJul 13 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk—912791Y. Vorsuliak—111011113
LJul 12 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk—1110751Y. Vorsuliak—81211113
LJun 22 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk—811814102Y. Vorsuliak—1191112123
WJun 21 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk—1111123Y. Vorsuliak—55100
LJun 20 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk—1185101Y. Vorsuliak—91111123
LJun 15 · 04:35V. Kovalchuk—8114111Y. Vorsuliak—11911133
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
Y. Vorsuliak10
LSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113LAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113
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