TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12479894
Played Aug 23Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61111810121210113
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 94 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 58.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 25–27 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Maksym Khomenko has won 25 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-27 in 52
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1488 vs Kovalchuk 1617
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 40% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 40% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +1 · Kovalchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.10 / Kovalchuk 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12479894
Khomenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 71 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back31% 31 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back16% 11 of 67
Kovalchuk1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 96 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it74% 68 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko0%0 of 3
AwayKovalchuk42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Khomenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Khomenko2Kovalchuk8n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S4Khomenko7Kovalchuk2n = 9Khomenko took 7 of 9
S5Khomenko3Kovalchuk3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoKovalchukKhomenko − KovalchukBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.941.9−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime489 / 884 vs 398 / 82655.3%48.2%489 / 884 vs 398 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKhomenko 2.10/Kovalchuk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.8%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko—6111012113V. Kovalchuk—118121032
LAug 22 · 22:30M. Khomenko—96110V. Kovalchuk—1111133
LAug 17 · 08:05M. Khomenko—11171152V. Kovalchuk—811117113
WAug 16 · 24:30M. Khomenko—91211123V. Kovalchuk—11102101
WAug 10 · 07:05M. Khomenko—611511113V. Kovalchuk—11211452
LAug 9 · 14:35M. Khomenko—11581142V. Kovalchuk—911114113
LAug 2 · 02:00M. Khomenko—711661V. Kovalchuk—11411113
WJul 12 · 14:35M. Khomenko—411412183V. Kovalchuk—1151110162
LJul 11 · 22:30M. Khomenko—11571192V. Kovalchuk—511118113
LJul 5 · 14:35M. Khomenko—10121161V. Kovalchuk—12147113
M. Khomenko10
LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
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