TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12479787
Played Aug 23Finished
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911411––––
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Vorsuliak above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 54 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Vorsuliak 45–33 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 33 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:46What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vorsuliak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-33 in 78
Vorsuliak
Wrong
gap of 12 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorsuliak 1616 vs Kovalchuk 1617
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorsuliak 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorsuliak 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorsuliak -1 · Kovalchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorsuliak 1.73 / Kovalchuk 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vorsuliak)-7.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12479787
Vorsuliak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 87 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it91% 38 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 62 of 80
Kovalchuk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 116 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back27% 34 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorsuliak7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorsuliak80%4 of 5
AwayKovalchuk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorsuliak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Vorsuliak4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Vorsuliak8Kovalchuk2n = 10Vorsuliak took 8 of 10
S4Vorsuliak7Kovalchuk2n = 9Vorsuliak took 7 of 9
S5Vorsuliak1Kovalchuk2n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorsuliakKovalchukV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.039.0+4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorsuliakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 889 vs 398 / 82650.2%48.2%446 / 889 vs 398 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukVorsuliak 1.73/Kovalchuk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 23:30Y. Vorsuliak—11991182V. Kovalchuk—711118113
WAug 17 · 05:35Y. Vorsuliak—131111113V. Kovalchuk—159681
LAug 16 · 01:38Y. Vorsuliak—91111872V. Kovalchuk—117711113
WAug 15 · 22:00Y. Vorsuliak—11912113V. Kovalchuk—5111081
WJul 13 · 08:05Y. Vorsuliak—111011113V. Kovalchuk—912791
WJul 12 · 18:35Y. Vorsuliak—81211113V. Kovalchuk—1110751
WJun 22 · 11:05Y. Vorsuliak—1191112123V. Kovalchuk—811814102
LJun 21 · 13:05Y. Vorsuliak—55100V. Kovalchuk—1111123
WJun 20 · 23:30Y. Vorsuliak—91111123V. Kovalchuk—1185101
WJun 15 · 04:35Y. Vorsuliak—11911133V. Kovalchuk—8114111
Y. Vorsuliak10
LSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
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