TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481781
Played Aug 24Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115117––––
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 54.4%
53 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 66–43 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 43 of their 109 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Parahailo
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-43 in 109
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 23 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1563 vs Kovalchuk 1595
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo -3 · Kovalchuk -2
Parahailo
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Parahailo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 1.57 / Kovalchuk 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Parahailo)-4.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12481781
Parahailo1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it86% 49 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it73% 66 of 90
Kovalchuk2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 119 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back26% 34 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo83.3%5 of 6
AwayKovalchuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo6Kovalchuk4n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S2Parahailo6Kovalchuk4n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S3Parahailo5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Parahailo7Kovalchuk3n = 10Parahailo took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoKovalchukP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.837.1+5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 824 vs 399 / 82948.9%48.1%403 / 824 vs 399 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoParahailo 1.57/Kovalchuk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 02:30Y. Parahailo—11117113V. Kovalchuk—871181
WAug 11 · 16:05Y. Parahailo—91111113V. Kovalchuk—119341
WAug 7 · 11:55Y. Parahailo—1111910113V. Kovalchuk—69111262
LAug 5 · 10:35Y. Parahailo—811741V. Kovalchuk—11711113
WAug 4 · 17:35Y. Parahailo—161011113V. Kovalchuk—1412881
WAug 4 · 01:30Y. Parahailo—11911113V. Kovalchuk—611541
LJul 31 · 14:25Y. Parahailo—9129101V. Kovalchuk—111011123
LJul 29 · 10:35Y. Parahailo—1112121152V. Kovalchuk—414149113
WJul 22 · 10:35Y. Parahailo—11711113V. Kovalchuk—311461
WJul 20 · 22:00Y. Parahailo—61313113V. Kovalchuk—11111151
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
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