TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12479796
Played Aug 23Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161012118811711
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:45 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 54.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 43–66 Yurii Parahailo Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 43 of their 109 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Parahailo
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-66 in 109
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 23 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1629 vs Parahailo 1572
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Parahailo 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Parahailo 50%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Parahailo -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Parahailo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.38 / Parahailo 1.53
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Parahailo)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12479796
Kovalchuk2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 116 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back27% 34 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Parahailo1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 90 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it86% 50 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk3wins
AwayParahailo7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk50%2 of 4
AwayParahailo83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk3Parahailo7n = 10Parahailo took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukParahailoK − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.142.8−5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime397 / 823 vs 403 / 82348.2%49%397 / 823 vs 403 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoKovalchuk 2.38/Parahailo 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk—871181Y. Parahailo—11117113
LAug 11 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk—119341Y. Parahailo—91111113
LAug 7 · 11:55V. Kovalchuk—69111262Y. Parahailo—1111910113
WAug 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk—11711113Y. Parahailo—811741
LAug 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk—1412881Y. Parahailo—161011113
LAug 4 · 01:30V. Kovalchuk—611541Y. Parahailo—11911113
WJul 31 · 14:25V. Kovalchuk—111011123Y. Parahailo—9129101
WJul 29 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk—414149113Y. Parahailo—1112121152
LJul 22 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk—311461Y. Parahailo—11711113
LJul 20 · 22:00V. Kovalchuk—11111151Y. Parahailo—61313113
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162WAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570
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