TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481689
Played Aug 24Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1513116116––––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 62 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 55.5%
62 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 19–18 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-18 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1617 vs Storozhenko 1547
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Storozhenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Storozhenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.91 / Storozhenko 1.80
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12481689
Kovalchuk1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 119 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back26% 34 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Storozhenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 139 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it69% 92 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayStorozhenko3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%4 of 6
AwayStorozhenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Storozhenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk7Storozhenko3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S5Kovalchuk4Storozhenko1n = 5Kovalchuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.542.6+2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 826 vs 221 / 42548.2%52%398 / 826 vs 221 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.91/Storozhenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk—111111113O. Storozhenko—781391
WAug 18 · 13:35V. Kovalchuk—5101111113O. Storozhenko—11128992
WAug 14 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk—1111611113O. Storozhenko—13511592
LAug 11 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk—10151291O. Storozhenko—121314113
WAug 7 · 13:25V. Kovalchuk—3111111113O. Storozhenko—11137782
WAug 5 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk—11121110113O. Storozhenko—91471212
WJul 31 · 12:25V. Kovalchuk—111211113O. Storozhenko—614761
WJul 29 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk—111110113O. Storozhenko—691261
LJul 28 · 15:05V. Kovalchuk—114981O. Storozhenko—81111113
LJul 27 · 23:00V. Kovalchuk—111231182O. Storozhenko—814117113
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131LAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
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