TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481722
Played Aug 24Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311811––––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 54.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 5–11 Oleksii Rodin Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rodin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Rodin
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1608 vs Rodin 1613
Rodin
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Rodin 80%
Rodin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Rodin 70%
Rodin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Rodin +3
Rodin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rodin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.25 / Rodin 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Rodin)-2.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12481722
Kovalchuk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 119 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back26% 34 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Rodin1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 135 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it79% 91 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayRodin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRodin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk50%2 of 4
AwayRodin66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Rodin6n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk4Rodin6n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Rodin6n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Rodin4n = 7Rodin took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk2Rodin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukRodinK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.540.5−4.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 828 vs 160 / 25848.2%62%399 / 828 vs 160 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinKovalchuk 2.25/Rodin 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.4%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk—116119113O. Rodin—51151172
LAug 17 · 06:35V. Kovalchuk—4950O. Rodin—1111113
WAug 15 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk—712811123O. Rodin—1110119102
WAug 10 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk—111011113O. Rodin—812661
LAug 9 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk—6860O. Rodin—1111113
LAug 1 · 21:30V. Kovalchuk—851251O. Rodin—111110113
LJul 29 · 05:05V. Kovalchuk—12690O. Rodin—1411113
WJul 28 · 12:05V. Kovalchuk—51113113O. Rodin—1191161
LJul 27 · 20:00V. Kovalchuk—13117572O. Rodin—1191111113
LJul 25 · 22:15V. Kovalchuk—111110952O. Rodin—861211113
V. Kovalchuk10
LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113LAug 23 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.38111011872Y. Parahailo1.53612811113LAug 23 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.106111012113V. Kovalchuk1.67118121032WAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.83111111113O. Storozhenko1.83781391
O. Rodin10
WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111LSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LAug 23 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.3811411113O. Rodin1.53311721
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.